American Research Group has just released its West Virginia poll and Sen. Barack Obama is ahead 50% to 42%.  West Virginians were asked the following question:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

A pool of 600 likely voters said that they would vote for Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Joe Biden to be the next president and vice president of the United States of America.  This is a bleak sign for Sen. John McCain.  Bush carried West Virginia both in 2000 and 2004.  If McCain is eight points behind in West Virginia, the paths to victory are dwindling even further for the Arizona senator.

Economic Town Hall with Senator Joe Biden 

DATE: Today, Tuesday September 23

TIME: Doors Open at 10:45 a.m.
Event starts at 12:00 p.m. 

LOCATION:

Veterans Park

14300 Featherstone Road
Woodbridge, VA 22191
Multipurpose Room 1
Seating is limited and you must RSVP to
703-725-3755 or email SSternberg@vaobamaforchange.com

Joe Biden in Washington DC

Washington DC
Hilton Washington
5:00 pm (EDT)

Survey USA just released its poll results for Virginia today and though McCain had a post-convention Palin bounce, the Commonwealth is again moving towards Sen. Barack Obama for President.  In the state of Virginia Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 50% to 46%.  Keep up the GREAT work Virginia!! 

Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America’s 2008 battleground. 

One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.

Registered voters are being illegally purged from the voter rolls and being disenfranchised in several battleground states.  Many states are not following federal law which mandates procedures for voter registrant removal from the voter rolls.  “The National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) limits the circumstances in which a state may cancel a voter’s registration,” the Fair Elections Legal Network, a Washington-based voting rights consortium.  We have cited examples of alleged/actual illegal activity in Michigan, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, and Ohio.  It is that time in this political race were the dirty tricks begin to manifest in various forms of dress but the goal is clear…….disenfranchise voters.  It is important to be ultra vigilant with respect to your registration, the registration of your family members, etc.  Go to your states Secretary of State or Board of Elections website to verify/confirm that you are registered to vote. If you have moved you may have to reregister with your new address/change your address.  Check your states rules with respect to changing your address.  Also, check your voter status online if possible. See the articles here and here and here.  Please send us an email at progress@progresspolitics.com if there are any irregularities in your state or more specifically with your voter registration.

Thus far we have heard of Michigan:

In Michigan, the issues are more complex. Advancement Project’s Heard said there has been an overall lack of “transparency” regarding several aspects of the state’s voter purge process. In 2006, he said, Michigan election officials did a statewide mailing to all voters that did not mention the mailing would be used to verify voter registration information. Still, Heard said the returned postcards were used to remove 230,000 registered voters from voter rolls within 90 days of that year’s general election, which also violates the NVRA, he said.  

In MICHIGAN, voters can check status here

For VIRGINIA, check voter status online here.  

Colorado:

In swing-state Colorado, the Republican Secretary of State conducted the biggest purge of voters in history, dumping a fifth of all registrations. Guess their color.

In COLORADO, voters can check status  here     

Florida:

In swing-state Florida, the state is refusing to accept about 85,000 new registrations from voter drives – overwhelming Black voters.

In FLORIDA, voters can check status here 

New Mexico:

In swing state New Mexico, HALF of the Democrats of Mora, a dirt poor and overwhelmingly Hispanic county, found their registrations disappeared this year, courtesy of a Republican voting contractor. 

Nevada and Ohio:

In swing states Ohio and Nevada, new federal law is knocking out tens of thousands of voters who lost their homes to foreclosure.

In OHIO, voters can check status online here 

In NEVADA, voters can check status online here

Governor Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, will be speaking at a rally on Saturday at 12noon in the parking lot of Sun Trust bank.  The address:

2809 Mt. Vernon Ave
Alexandria, VA 22301

There will be canvassing and phone banking afterwards for those who would like to volunteer.

Governor Tim Kaine will be conducting Town hall meetings all across Virginia to explain why he is supportng Sen. Barack Obama for president.  He’ll be appearing at events in Winchester, Leesburg, Manassas, Warrenton, Williamsburg, and Richmond. RSVP here if you would like to attend. RSVP

Soon after Sen. Brack Obama’s sit-down with Tom Brokaw on Meet the Press last Sunday, speculation about potential veep’s has been running rampant throughout the punditry class.  Sen. Obama said that the characteristics that he is looking for in a vice president is someone who will work hard and will be a change agent ready to shake-up Washington.  The senator went on to say, “I’m going to want somebody with independence — who’s willing to tell me where he thinks, or she thinks, I’m wrong,” he said. “And I’m going to want somebody who shares a vision of the country: where we need to go — that we’ve got to fundamentally change not only our policies, but how politics work, how business is done in Washington.”

Tim Kaine seems to fit the bill.  Politico reports:

As Senator Barack Obama turns to the choice of his running mate, Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has emerged as one of the campaign’s potential finalists, sources familiar with conversations in Richmond and in Chicago said.

Kaine, an early Obama supporter whose biography nicely dovetails with the Illinois senator’s, “ranks very, very high on the short list,” said a source who has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine.

Kaine “is getting a critical examination,” the source said.

The 50-year-old Virginia governor is among a handful of logical, and much-discussed, choices to join Obama on the campaign trail. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn and Delaware Senator Joe Biden are among others frequently mentioned.

This writer thinks that Kaine would be a great pick!

Obama is doing very well right in red states typically won by republicans in recent past elections.

• Montana: Bush won by 11 points in 2004, Obama leading McCain by 5 points
• Colorado: Bush +4, Obama +5
• Virginia: Bush +8, Obama +2
• New Mexico: Bush +1, Obama +3
• Florida: Bush +5, Obama +2
• Indiana: Bush +20, Obama +1
• Georgia: Bush +16, McCain +1
• Mississippi: Bush +20, McCain +4
• Alaska: Bush +26, McCain +4
• North Carolina: Bush +13, McCain +4

What is really interesting is that McCain is only leading by one percentage point in Georgia when Bush won the state by 16 points.  Also, McCain is leading by a mere four points in Mississippi, Alaska, and North Carolina, all states that Bush won by landslides in 2004.  I guess we all understand more why McCain has put Bush’s point person in charge of the day to day operations of his campaign.

A total of 330,714 people voted in Virginia yesterday, 76,000 of which voted in early voting.  Clinton pulled out a substantial win of 67% to Obama’s 26%.   Given the fact that Obama did not campaign in West Virginia, such a wide margin was expected.  A total of 28 delegates will be awarded.  Pundits are asking why did West Virginians vote for Clinton knowing that most have proclaimed the race over and Obama as the nominee?  To that question I have a different question, why did 7% of West Virginians vote for John Edwards even though he has been out of the race since January?  A notable percentage of West Virginians appear to be saying we don’t like the woman or the black guy.  This bolsters an argument that I make later in this article.  The exit polls revealed that 20% of West Virginia voters thought race an important factor in their decision.  That is a pretty high number to overcome.  However, it is not insurmountable with a few more visits to the state.  Many of the pundits are punditing that Obama may have an issue in the general if he is unable to connect with the type of working class voters that make up West Virginia.  My question is, are the pundits overstating the importance of carrying the white vote?  Why is it only republican stategist and pundits like Pat Buchannan, Joe Scaborough, Tucker Carlson, and Lou Dobbs that insist that Obama has a problem because he is not winning every single identity group?  Also, why is it only the republican strategists and pundits who continue to promote the idea of a “Dream Ticket?”  It seems to me that if the conservative right cannot get Clinton on the top of the ticket, they will accept her in the VP spot just to get her on the ticket. As I’ve mentioned before, nothing rallies the conservative base like the potential of the Clintons back in the White House.  Just as background, West Virginia voted for Bush twice and traditionally is a very conservative state.  My guess is that if Clinton expects to hold such voters in a general election, she is miscaculating.  Pundits say that Clinton has been able to connect with working class voters in West Virginia, I say that the connection is fleeting when John “maverick” McCain enters the picture.  A Quinnipiac national poll released today makes my point.  McCain is leading Obama among white voters 47% to 40% but McCain is also leading Clinton 48% to 41% among white voters.  This really undercuts Clinton’s argument that she appeals more to whit voters.  If there was no Obama on the ticket in Westy Virginia, chances are that such voters would not be supporting Clinton in the numbers that they did yesterday.  Simply because of the Clinton’s history and identity-politics.  One problem evidenced by the West Virginia exit polls is that 50% of West Virginians believe that Obama shares Rev. Wright’s views.  This is clearly a result of not campaigning in the state, something that can be remedied in the general election.  Obama won neighboring Virginia by 29 percentage points so it is very probable that he will bring West Virginians into the fold.  Finally, a bit of historical perspective.  The last democrat that carried the white vote in a presidential election was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  Bob Dole carried the white vote in his presidential bid against Bill Clinton in 1996 and as most of you know, Dole lost.  It seems to be more important to build a coalition that is a cross-section of all of America.  What does the West Virginia win mean….it does not change the race in any way but does give the pundits something to talk about for the next week until the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on May 20th.

Today West Virginia holds its democratic presidential primary.  Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama take their contest to the Appalachian state.  There are 28 delegates at stake in West Virginia and Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to win the state by at least 30 percentage points. 

The polls are open from 6:30am to 7:30pm.  Voter Hotline:  1-866-SOS-VOTE (1-866-767-8683)

Voters may enter their precinct any time duing those hours to cast their vote.  Independents may vote in the democratic primary simply request a democratic ballot.  Here are a few more tips to help with the process.

1. Bring identification if you did not submit proof of your residency when you actually registered to vote or if this is your first time voting.  Just to be on the safe side bring ID.  Acceptable forms of identification are drivers license, pay stubs, bank statements, utility bills, or other government issued documents.
2. Be prepared to sign your name in the poll book as proof of your identity.
3. Vote via “touch screen device” or paper ballot.  If you are using a paper ballot,  make sure to mark your ballot in ink.  After completing your ballot, return the ballot with secrecy envelope, poll slip, and other material to the poll worker at which time it will be placed in the ballot box.
4. Voters may receive assistance if they have a disability, are elderly, or possess an inability to read or write.
5. Curbside voting is available from an automobile outside your precinct in the presence of an election commissioner from each political party if: 1) the polling place is not handicap accessible, and 2) no voters are voting or waiting to vote inside the polling place.
6. Provisional Ballots.  You may be required to vote provisionally if:
   1. Your name is not in the poll book
   2. Your signature does not match the signature in teh poll book
   3. It is noted in the poll book that you already voted during the early absentee voting period
   4. You received assisatnce while voting, and it appeared to teh poll worker that you did not require such assistance.

Barack Obama and John McCain has won all three contests within the Potomac primaries.  On the democratic side, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Virginia gave Barack Obama significant victories over Hillary Clinton.  More specifically, Virginia was very significant.  Considered a sort of bellwether state, Obama won over voters that have previously voted for Clinton.  For example, Obama won the latino vote 53% to Clintons 37%.  In Virginia and Maryland, Obama won 59% of the women vote.  Obama split the Virginia overall white vote with Clinton by winning 48% of the total demographic.  Further, Obama also won heavily among white men in Virginia.  In addition, Obama won the catholic vote.  As for Obama’s across-the-isle appeal, republicans represented 8% of the vote in the Virginia democratic primary and Obama won 70% of their vote.  The Senator from Illinois has managed to broaden his coalition by reaching across the isle with a unifying message.  Both candidates were vying heavily for Virginia voters.  Clinton considered Virginia her best chance of a win within this group of contests.  However, Obama won a substantial victories over Clinton in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia.  The final tally for Virginia is 64% to 35%, Maryland, 59% to 37% and the District of Columbia, 75% to 24%.  These wins will give Obama eight victories in a row thereby giving Obama a delegate lead over Clinton.  Before this contest, the Associated Press reported that Clinton lead with 1136 delegates to Obama’s 1108.  After the Potomac primaries, Obama takes the lead with 1210 delegates and Clinton falls slightly behind with 1188 delegates.  These AP totals includes Superdelegates.   Additionally, Obama has won a total of 21 states to Clinton’s 10.  The Clinton campaign has said that their focus is on the March 4th primaries of Ohio and Texas.  Clinton is already campaigning in the Lone Star State in hopes of building a firewall against the Obama momentum.  Though, continued wins by Obama could put a kink in Clinton’s strategy.  It will be difficult for the Clinton campaign to spin eight successive wins by Obama as insignificant.   As damage control, Clinton made telephone calls to several of her donors and supporters asking them to hang in there with her until Ohio and Texas.  However, if Obama’s momentum continues to build, Ohio and Texas may not be the result that the Clinton campaign expects. Obama has already hit the ground in Wisconsin campaigning for its primary on February 19th.  As for the Republicans, McCain also won all of the Potomac primaries.  It seems that McCain in winning over conservatives, at least he did so in Virginia and Maryland.  The final tallys were Virginia, McCain 50% and Huckabee 41%, in Maryland McCain 59% and Huckabee 29%. and the District of Columbia, McCain 68% and 35%.  Virginia is especially significant due the large amount of conservatives in that state.  The fact that McCain won Virginia may be an indication that the tide may be turning and the far right of the GOP has begun to rally around the Arizona senator.  Huckabee was hoping to win Virginia to legitimize his continued participation in the race.  However, the former Arkansas govenor is not dropping out and vows to stay in the race uintil McCain hits the magic number of 1191 delegates.   The McCain campaign has labeled the affable Arkansan an “irritant.” After McCain’s win of Virginia, most have concluded that he is the Republican nominee.  There isn’t a math calculation that adds up to Huckabee becoming the GOP nominee for the 2008 Presidential niomination.  As a side note:  Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, resigns.

Today all the candidates battle in the beltway.  For the democrats, a total of 168 delegates are at stake in Virginia, the District of Columbia, and Maryland.  Virginia boasts the biggest prize of 83 delegates, then Maryland with 70, and the District of Columbia holds 15 delegates.  The Democratic candidates are in a dead heat, and both Clinton and Obama have been campaigning heavily in the Beltway over the last couple of days.  Last count, according to NBC, Clinton has 1136 delegates to Obama’s 1108.  For the republicans, there are a total of 113 delegates at stake in the Potomac primaries.  Virginia will be shelling out 60 delegates, Maryland 37, and the District of Columbia 16.  McCain is still very much the GOP frontrunner with 724 delegates and Huckabee is trailing significantly with 234 delegates.  Virginia is an open primary so a registered voter can vote in any party primary regardless of his or her party affiliation.  Maryland is a closed primary where voters may vote in a party’s primary only if they are registered members of that party.  The polls in Virginia are open 6am to 7pm, you must be in line at 7pm in order to vote.   In the District of Columbia and Maryland the polls are open from 7am to 8pm.  These hours may be extended if there are voting irregularities or problems, so check with your precinct for updated hours.  Most importantly, please don’t forget to VOTE TODAY.

Barack Obama proves again that he is a force to be reckon with.  The Jr. Senator won both Nebraska and Washington 68% to Clinton’s 32%.  Obama also won 57% of the Louisiana vote and 90% of the Virgin Islands vote.  This has been a great night for Obama.  There was a total of 161 delegates up for grabs tonight.  In the states where Clinton received at least 15% of the vote, the delegates will be split proportionally between the two candidates.  The candidates move on to the Maine caucuses today where 24 delegates are at stake. Next stop, the Potomac, or the beltway primaries on Feb 12th. Both candidates will be battling for precious delegates in the District of Columbia, 37 delegates, Maryland, 99 delegates, and Virginia for 101 delegates.

The first primary decision of the day is Mike Huckabee takes West Virginia.  After the first round of the caucus in West Virginia, Romney led.  However, at the second round, McCain voters gave Huckabee their support thereby giving Mike Huckabee the win.