Barack Obama attracted the largest crowd of this primary in Portland Oregon this past weekend.  The record drawing crowd was at least 75,000 strong with spectators watching from the lawn of the Tom McCall Waterfront Park.  The park could not hold the enormous crowd so Oregonians watched from boats, outside the park, and any other place that would allow them access to the Illinois senator.  Portland is the state’s largest urban area and has been monikered by its residents as “the whitest major city in the United States.”  The state of Oregon is also a breeding ground for anti-war activism and sentiment, so Obama’s opposition the the Iraq war contributed to him being an early favorite in the state.  Tomorrow, residents of Oregon and Kentucky will have their say at the ballot box.  Though Obama has virtually conceded Kentucky to Clinton, the Illinois senator is expected to pull out a decisive victory in Oregon.  Obama is not expected to declare victory tomorrow for fear of appearing presumptuous.  However, the Windy City senator will have won the most pledge delegates and a win in Oregon will make it officially impossible for Clinton, in the remaining primaries, to overtake his pledge delegate lead.  Obama will have to pull out a decent victory in Oregon and decrease Clinton’s margin of victory in Kentucky.  If the feedback from the Obama call banks are anything to go by, Clinton’s margin of victory will not be as large in the Bluegrass State as it was in West Virginia.  Kentucky is a culturally conservative state that does not care for Wall Street but there is a growing populous discontent in the state.  Republicans are polling poorly in the state and this may offer an opportunity for Sen. Obama to take advantage.  Having said all that, even though Obama will essentially win the nomination tomorrow, declaring victory may antagonize Clinton supporters thereby making it more difficult to unify the party after the primary season is completed.  That does not change the reality however that this race is over.  Nor does it take away from the fact that the Obama camp have solid and legitimate reasons for optimism. One being the fact that not a single superdelegate, uncommitted or undeclared, can be found to say that he/she would be willing, despite Obama’s pledge delegate lead, to overturn the result and make Clinton the nominee.  Therefore, Obama is on solid footing in his belief that he will become the official democratic nominee on Tuesday night.  Sen. Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday, not in Kentucky or Oregon, but in Iowa.  The place where his imminent rise in contention and legitimacy began.  Obama spent eight months in Iowa prior to its primary.  Eight months well spent by most calculations.   

The state of the race at this point is as follows.  Sen. Hillary Clinton needs 171 of the remaining 189 pledge delegates to overtake Obama’s lead.  That means that Clinton will need 91% of the remaining pledged delegates to secure victory.  Broken down even further, Clinton will need to win 91% of the vote in every remaining state including Puerto Rico.  Side point about Puerto Rico: it cannot vote in the general election so it does not help Clinton’s argument that she is more electable in the general election even if she wins it in the primary.  Back to the facts.  Given that Obama has a significant lead in Oregon right now of an average 52% to Clinton’s 35%, he will at least net 26 delegates of the 52 delegates being allotted.  Currently Obama enjoys a 153 pledged delegate lead over Sen. Clinton.  Obama only needs 19 delegates to win the insurmountable majority of the pledged delegates.  Because the majority of superdelegates agree that overturning the collected will of the people would be disastrous for the party, Obama basically clinches the nomination on May 20th, the night of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries.  Looks like that is all she wrote.

Rep. Pete Visclosky (IN) has endorsed Barack Obama, as well as Christine Schon Marques. Marques is the chair of the Democrats Abroad and is assigned .5 votes at the Democratic convention.  College Democrat Chairs Awais Khaleel (WI) and Lauren Wolfe (MI) endorsed Obama late last night.   Not sure how much of the Michigan vote of confidence by Lauren Wolfe will be counted.  Obama is also receiving the endorsements of 3 fomer SEC chairmen today, one of which worked for President Bush.  William Donaldson, who was SEC chairman for about 2½ years from early 2003, along with Clinton and Reagan appointees Arthur Levitt and David Ruder.

Clinton also picked up 1 superdelegate, Vicky Harwell, president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women.

Sen. Bob Casey endorses Barack Obama for President.  Sen. Casey is also a superdelegate.  The Senator makes his anouncement kicks ff a week long bus tour that Obama will be doing through Pennsylvania.  This gives Obama one more superdelegate as well as street cred in Pennsylvania.  Sen. Casey also has a lot of clout with working class Pennsylvanians as well as catholic voters. 

By any means necessary is how Hillary Clinton plans to win the democratic nomination.  So let me get this right…even though the voters have gone out to the polls and made their choices as to who they want as President, Hillary Clinton plans to override their will through backroom dealing at the Democratic Convention.  It appears as if Clinton believes that she is entitled to the presidency regardless of what the American voters have to say about it.  What is going on?  First, she tries to seat the phantom delegates of Michigan and Florida in an attempt to override the will of the voters.  Now she attempts another, deemed by some as “subversive,” tactic to secure the nomination.  Does Clinton actually have a campaign strategy to thwart the will of the american people and disenfranchise millions of  voters?  Below is an article from Politico where the Clinton campaign confirms its strategy.

Clinton targets pledged delegates  POLITICO By: Roger Simon

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination. This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides.  What? Isn’t that impossible? A pledged delegate is pledged to a particular candidate and cannot switch, right? Wrong.  Read the rest of this entry »

Dear Democratic Party Leaders,

What an exciting race?  I have never experienced such an adrenalin rush from a political campaign.  As an outsider looking in, the democratic race is like being at the horse races at the final stretch.   Even with all the exciting contests, debates, and back and forth between the two candidates, I find myself wondering…is all this for naught?  Are we going to wake up one day before the convention and hear that, despite all our efforts and all the newly generated excitement, the Democratic Party establishment has decided the nominee for us?  Are we going to hear that some backroom deal was brokered in the middle of the night by Washington insiders?  Please say it isn’t so.  Now that you have our keen interest, awakened our spirit, motivated us toward change, inspired us to be more politically involved than any electorate in history, I hope that you do not now steal our spirit by meeting behind closed doors in a smoke filled room to make a decision that will affect the American people for decades, and maybe centuries to come.  If such an outcome were to occur, I believe that there would be a backlash toward the election system and the democratic party of epic proportions.  The last thing that we need as voters is to feel that going out to polls and casting our vote does not really matter.  Many people felt this way after the Bush-Gore election.  To have this confirmed inside the Democratic party would be completely demoralizing for the “electorate.” The idea that a few people within the Democratic Party have the power to override the will of the general population seems contrary to what the Democratic Party stands for.  Not to mention, pompous and arrogant.  The whole Superdelegates system does not necessarily instill in voters the confidence that our will will prevail in the end. The archaic system was developed at a time when the electorate did not have the technology and improved communication available to us today.  Because of such improvements, we are much more informed about the issues facing our country and our everyday lives.  The Superdelegates idea is based on the erroneous premise that politicians have better judgment than their constituents as to who should be our President.  But don’t we elect the politicians?  Well, it’s a new day, and voters of the 2008 election are more informed about the issues affecting their political decisions than voters have been in the last thirty years.  So I ask…..is such a system needed in this incredibly technologically advanced climate?  I think not.  I suggest that after the 2008 election the antiquated system be scrapped.  As for this election, my suggestion is that you make some process decisions as to how the worst case scenario can be resolved and you make them quick.  Read the rest of this entry »

It was a big night for John McCain and he proudly proclaimed himself the frontrunner for the republican nomination.  The senator from Arizona won key delegate rich states from New York to California.   Few would disagree that McCain has gained tremendous momentum.  McCain’s rivals, Romney and Huckabee, vow to stay in the race until the convention if necessary.  As for Obama and Clinton, both won victories in key states to end the night with no end in sight.  Obama won more delegates and more states.  Clinton won most of the northeastern corridor.  Neither of the two democratic candidates can legitimately claim an overall victory. However, I am sure that the campaign staffers will figure out a way to spin the results so that their candidate comes out on top.  Clinton maintained a majority share of the latino vote.  Obama maintained the lion share of the african-american vote.  However, Obama averaged 40% of the white vote which is what many of the analyst predicted that he would need in order to form a formidable coalition of voters that can push him through to the White House.  Unlike in previous contests where Clinton held a sizeable lead over Obama with women and white voters,  Clinton now only holds a slight edge with these groups.  Clinton won California which was billed as one of the big prizes of the night.   Obama won Missouri which has been billed as the bellwether state. New Mexico has yet to declare the democratic winner of it’s state but the last update showed a 70 vote difference between Obama and Clinton.  Obama is slightly ahead in the delegate count.  The February 9th primaries for the democrates  are Lousiana, Nebraska (caucus) and Washington (caucus).  For the republicans, its Louisiana, Kansas, and Washington (caucus).  The democrats have the Maine caucus on February 10th.  Both parties have primaries on February 12th in Maryland, Virgina, and DC.

A large group of American voters will decide who they think can best bring the change that America needs in these very turbulant times.   However, as far as the democrats are concerned, chances are that the decision will not be definitively decided today.  Last I checked, the democratic race was a dead heat.  In the national polls, Obama has steadily closed in on Clinton’s lead.  In the USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary is at 45% and Obama is at 44%.  CNN/Opinion Research shows Obama leading Clinton 49% to 46%.  The ABC  World News poll shows Clinton leading 47% to Obama’s 43%.  Finally, the latest Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll show Obama with a slight lead in key Super Tuesday states such as California, Georgia, and Missouri.  As a side note, when the California results are in and the public begins to evaluate the outcome of the California democratic race, the public should keep in mind that California voters have been mailing in their ballots since January 7th when Clinton was ahead in California by double digits.  End of side note.  However, considering the tightning of the Obama-Clinton race and the fact that Obama is now slightly leading in California, undoubtedly demonstrates that Obama’s message is resonating with California voters.  On the republican side, McCain has an average 16 point lead over the other republican candidates.  As a caveat, now that I have flooded you with polling information, after what happened in New Hampshire, my faith in the polling system is considerably diminished.  So don’t rely on the polls to make your choice for President.  Okay…back to the Super Tuesdays states.  Georgia will probably be the first big decision of the night.  California will probably be the last big decision of the night.  However, the most important decision is yours.  The best way that voters can make certain that their will is reflected in Super Tuesday, and in Washington DC in November, is to make sure that they get out and vote for the candidate of their choice.  Change begins with YOU.

Many of the same arguments being leveled against Obama’s candidacy were made against JFK by the democratic party establisment during Kennedy’s run for president in 1960.  The experience argument, the national security argument, all of same arguments were used during the Kennedy-Johnson primaries of 1960.  Kennedy was dubbed too young and inexperienced to be trusted with the Presidency.  Kennedy was asked by Truman to “be patient” until he had more seasoning.  Kennedy responded with winning the nomination and then the Presidency in November of 1960.  Just like in 1960, the democratic party is resisting change with tooth and nail.  Unfortunately, for those political veterans who have been in Washington for too many years,  change is coming.  Those who expect the usual rules of old school politics to dictate the outcome of this election will be sorely disappointed.   Just as most voters must have felt on November 7, 1960…..it is a new day in Washington.

Hillary Clinton tears up during one of her campaign stops in Connecticut when being introduced by a friend.  Okay, I think that many of you may think me really cynical after reading this piece. I apologize.  The day before what most are touting as the biggest contest the democrats will face during this election cycle, on the eve of the big game, just before the coin toss, two seconds before the jump-shot, Hillary Clinton tears up at a campaign stop in New Haven, Connecticut during a meeting with women about healthcare.  All I can say is, wow….emotion on demand.  Her timing could not be better considering that Tsunami Tuesday is upon us.  I know, I know, I’m just too suspicious.  However, I do think that through the tears, she is weeping for another New Hampshire.  Waaaayyyy too obvious of a conclusion?  I think that I am spot-on.

Presidential candidate Barrack Obama received the endorsement of Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas.  Governor Sebelius has been touted as an up and coming star of the democratic party.  Governor Sebelius is most recently known for giving the Democratic response to President Bush’s State of the Union address last night.  Kansas is also one of the Super Tuesday states.

In the Democratic party you have delegates (the popular vote of the State), and then you have Super Delegates who are allotted a heaping portion of delegates and are Democratic party leaders (members of Congress, democratic governors, and elected members of the Democratic National Committee).  Super Delegates can vote for whomever they choose and are not beholding to the popular vote of his or her state. The total number of Super Delegates in the Democratic Party is 796 and make up about 20 percent of the entire convention. On Feb 5^th , several states delegates will be up for grabs.  For the Republicans, 975 delegates are at stake, and for the Democrats, 1681 delegates are at stake.  The Democratic National Committee awards delegates on a proportional basis, which means that all of the candidates will pick up delegates if they clear the 15% viability threshold.  The Republicans have a combination of proportional and winner-take-all system.  In winner-take-all, if a candidate wins by just one vote he receives all the delegates for that state.  There are 22 Super Tuesday states for the Democrats and 21 for the Republicans.  The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of all its delegates because the Sunshine state moved up its primaries in violation of DNC rules.