Four-star General Colin Powell said that Sen. Barack Obama has the makings of becoming “an exceptional president” when he endorsed the Illinois senator on Sunday’s Meet the Press. For those who are asking what this high profile foreign policy and military expert endorsement of Sen. Obama will do in terms of votes, Sen. Obama’s numbers increased today by two points in the Reuters/Cspan/Zogby daily tracking poll. On Sunday before the endorsement the numbers were Obama 48 to McCain’s 45. After Gen. Powell’s endorsement, Obama’s numbers bumped up 50 to McCain’s 44. Sen. Obama also gained three points among Catholics (primarly white voters). A shout out to Obama: Sen. Obama has built a very broad coalition of voters. The Illinois senator enjoys 40% of the white vote (average for democratic candidates Clinton, Gore, Kerry), 95% of the black vote, and 70% of the latino vote. His support in the asian community is also very significant. He is a candidate that truly represents all Americans instead of a small part of it. The Reuters?Cspan/Zogby poll is a three day tracking poll where the average of three days polling is given as the final result. On Sunday alone, after the Powell endorsement, Sen. Obama’s tracking numbers jumped 10 points! The numbers are in and the four-star General definitely made a difference. General Powell has worked for Bush 41 and Bush 43 and is a very good friend of Sen. John McCain’s. Therefore, for the General to come out and support Sen. Obama, his opposing party’s candidate, is a tremendous vote of confidence in Obama-Biden and more importantly a significant lack of confidence in a McCain-Palin administration. General Powell said that Sen. McCain’s campaign is not good for the country or its reputation around the world. The former Secretary of State went on to say that he is concerned about McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate. The General believes that Palin is not qualified to be vice president. Now I say to you, if Palin is not qualified to be vice president, she is certainly not qualified to be president should the recent concerns about McCain’s health be substantiated.
One last thing. General Powell made a really interesting point about allegations from the Right that Sen. Obama is proposing redistributing wealth through his tax policy. To paraphrase, Powell said that all tax policy is about redistribution of wealth in some form because for the government to function it cost money. Think about it this way, when the Republican party and its leaders Bush/McCain demand military actions in other regions of the world knowing that it will result in significant government expenditures and then demand deep tax cuts simultaneously for a small group of Americans in the highest tax bracket, this results in wealth redistribution from the middle class and the working poor to the rich. So for republicans and McCain to call Sen. Obama tax policy wealth redistributing, they are for redistributing themselves but to a different socio-economic class…..the rich.
First it was Charlie Crist choosing to go to Disney World rather than attending a McCain event. Yes, after flying around Florida with McCain’s running mate Gov. Sarah Palin, Crist had more important things to do on Saturday when he skipped a McCain football rally to go to Disney World. Crist gave the following comment, ”[w]hen I have time to help, I’ll try to do that.” Is it me or is that the loud echo of distancing that I hear?
The RNC has moved into triage mode and are now concentrating on saving senate seats. The RNC is specifically trying to prevent a filibuster-proof majority in the senate. The Democrats only need nine senate seats to get the 60 seat majority needed to prevent filibusters by the GOP.
Obama now holds a double-digit lead on McCain in four different battlground states. Quinnipiac released its poll results yesterday for four key swing states. In Colorado, Obama leads McCain 52 to 43. In Michigan, Obama leads 54 to 38 percent. In Minnesota, Obama is up 51 to 40 percent, and in Wisconsin Obama leads McCain 51 to 43 percent. Not a good day for McCain.
Survey USA just released its poll results for Virginia today and though McCain had a post-convention Palin bounce, the Commonwealth is again moving towards Sen. Barack Obama for President. In the state of Virginia Sen. Obama leads Sen. McCain 50% to 46%. Keep up the GREAT work Virginia!!
Virginia Men, Voters Age 50+, Independents, Take Another Look At Obama: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America’s 2008 battleground.
One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.
In Virginia, there is still no evidence that Sarah Palin is attracting women to the GOP ticket. McCain polled at 44% before he picked Palin, and at 43% in each of the two polls conducted after Palin was announced.
What is really interesting is that McCain is only leading by one percentage point in Georgia when Bush won the state by 16 points. Also, McCain is leading by a mere four points in Mississippi, Alaska, and North Carolina, all states that Bush won by landslides in 2004. I guess we all understand more why McCain has put Bush’s point person in charge of the day to day operations of his campaign.
Clinton wins Pennsylvania. As of Wednesday morning, according to the most recent tabulation from the Pennsylvania Secretary of State, the current spread is 54.6% to 45.4% with 99.99% of the votes counted. This is only a 9% spread which is much different than what the main stream media is reporting as 10%.
Obama actually improved his numbers since Ohio, even though Pennsylvania is tailor made for Hillary Clinton. In Ohio the spred was 10%, in Pennsylvania it is only 9%. Pennsylvania has the second oldest population in the country, a demographic that is primed for a Clinton win. This was also a closed primary where independents and republicans, two groups that Obama usually carries, were not allowed to vote. Pennsylvania will divide 158 delegates proportionally between Obama and Clinton. Turnout was 52%, double the turnout in 2004. Exit polls reveal that voters whose primary issue is the economy are voting for Clinton 57 to 43. Voters whose primary issue is Iraq are voting for Obama 57% to 43%. There were 300,000 new voters in Pennsylvania, 35% of which are in Philadelphia and suburbs also known as Obama country. 17% of undecided voters made up their minds in the last three days. Seniors vote to Clinton 61 to 38. African-American vote to Obama 92 to 8. White male to Clinton 55 to 45. 42% says U.S. in a serious recession. Less than 1% consider electability an issue. Pennsylvania voters rated the following issues as most important: change 49%, experience 26%, cares about me 14%, electability 8%. 54% think that the economy is the most important issue, and 28% think that Iraq is most important. 1 in 5 Clinton voters feel that Obama will be the nominee. 64% of women voted for Clinton. 55% of white males voted for Clinton, 45% voted for Obama. As for voters who thought that either candidate attacked the other unfairly, 67% thought that Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, and 48% thought that Obama attacked Obama unfairly. Late deciders who decided within the last three days went to Clinton. Newly registered democrats backed Obama. In addition, 29% of those newly registered voters said that they would not vote for Clinton if she is the nominee. Clinton will probably net about 14 more delegates than Obama out of Pennsylvania, in addition to increasing her popular vote count by 200,000.
The voters of the Keystone State make their voices heard today. Pennsylvania reports that 156,ooo new voters have registered as democrats. Also, 150,000 republicans have switched party affiliations to vote in the democratic primary. A grand total of 8,328,123 have registered to vote for the Pennsylvania primary today. Because there is no early voting in Pennsylvania without a valid excuse, candidates do not benefit from wide leads held in Pennsylvania six weeks ago. The polls close at 8pm est.
Potential problems and solutions Pennsylvania voters may face at the polls today:
Voters without proper ID. Voters need to bring valid identification. New voters are required to bring identification, but all voters should bring id just to be safe. Such identification can be a Pennsylvania drivers license or a picture student or employee id. Acceptable non-photo ID must have a name and address, such as a current utility bill or current paycheck.
Another potential problem is voters names not appearing in the poll books. If a voter’s name doesn’t appear in the poll book, Common Cause advises voters to ask poll workers to check supplemental voting lists that are sometimes printed up after the main poll books are printed, and ask the poll workers to call the county board of elections. As a last resort he or she should ask to vote on a provisional ballot.
Voters arriving at the wrong precinct. If a Pensylvanian voter shows up at the wrong precinct “their vote can still count as long as they cast their vote anywhere in the correct county, even if they are at the wrong precinct in their county. To have their vote count, they need to complete a provisional ballot and have the correct ID.”
Voting machine malfunction. If a voter is at a polling place where voting machines have broken down or failed to start up, he or she should request an emergency paper ballot to vote.
Voters arriving at the polls near closing time. Voters who arrive at the polls and are in line before 8pm must be allowed to vote according to Pennsylvania law. Voters cannot be turned away if they are in line by 8pm.
Voters who experience problems at their polling location should call Pennsylvania’s voter hotline: 1-877-VOTES-PA (1-877-868-3772) and/or the Common Cause national election protection line: 1-866-OUR VOTE (1-866-687-8683)
Barack Obama wins a landslide victory in Mississippi. Final count, Obama 61%, Clinton 37%. Obama and Clinton battled it out in the Mississippi Delta and Obama inhaled the sweet smell of magnolias. Mississippi voters came out for the Illinois senator big time. The turnout in Mississippi was two and a half times what the Secretary of State predicted. Over 400,000 people came out to vote in the Magnolia State. More people turned out in this primary than in the 2004 general election. The state will proportionally distribute 33 delegates to the candidates. Exit polls further revealed that Mississippi voters think that Barack Obama is more qualified to be Commander and Chief, 54% to Clinton’s 43%. Obama also won the 17-29 voting block 67% to Clinton’s 32%. Clinton won the 65 and older voting block 56% to Obama’s 44%. Clinton also won white voters 72% to Obama’s 28%. However, Obama won African-American voters 91% to Clinton’s 9%. Of voters who decided in the last 3 days, Clinton won 55% to Obama’s 45%. Mississippi voters were also asked if they believe that Obama is honest and trustworthy, 70% said yes. When asked whether they believe that Clinton is honest and trustworthy, only 48% said yes. Obama also increased his popular vote lead over Clinton by 100,000 votes. One interesting fact that came from the exit polls is that a majority of Clinton voters in Mississippi have a favorable view of John McCain. Therefore, it stands to reason that if Clinton’s voters have a favorable view of the GOP candidate, that they are more open to being persuaded to vote for McCain in the general election than Obama supporters. A possible Clinton electability issue that should be explored further. Both candidates campaigned heavily in Mississippi. The state has an open primary were independents and republicans voted. What was most on the minds of Mississippi voters, Katrina recovery. The state has been devastated Katrina and recovery is not coming soon enough for its citizens. Voters looked to the candidates for commitments to make the recovery a priority. Healthcare and the economy were also big issues for Mississippi voters. Breaking News Update: CNN just reported that Barack Obama won the Texas caucus. This fact gives Obama a higher delegate gain in Texas than Clinton. Because Texas is a two-step process, logic dictates that the candidate who comes out ahead after combining the two steps is the winner of the Texas primacaucus. Obama received a combined total of 99 delegates from Texas, Clinton received a combined total of 94 delegates. Final tally, a net gain of 5 delegates for Obama. Therefore, Obama won Texas! Obama continues to lead in the delegate count 1608 to Clinton’s 1478.
There is a question that should be answered with respect to recent results in the Ohio and Texas primaries. Rush Limbaugh who broadcasts to a national audience urged his listeners in Ohio and Texas to influence the democratic primaries on March 4th by voting for Hillary Clinton. Limbaugh’s motivation? To drag out the democratic race and get Obama all “bloodied” up from Clinton attacks for the general election against John McCain. Apparently, the Clinton campaign doesn’t care how it wins because Bill Clinton went on the Rush Limbaugh show (Bill Clinton on Rush Limbaugh?????) the day of the primaries in an effort to, what can only be interpreted as, encourage such strategy. A little back story for those who have lived in Siberia during and since the Clinton administration. Rush Limbaugh hates Bill and Hillary Clinton. Limbaugh has done nothing but insult, rail, disparage, and spew vitriolic attacks against the Clintons since Bill Clinton was elected in 1992. So the fact that Bill Clinton went on the radio show of his most vehement public enemy tells me that he endorses this republican manipulation. In Texas, it turns out that Obama did win the republican vote 53-46, however, of the conservative republicans who voted, Clinton won them 52-45 for the first time since Super Tuesday. Republican turnout in the Texas and Ohio primaries was up overall by 3-5 points from previous open democratic primaries. Not to mention that conservative republicans voting in the democratic primary was up by at least 7% from previous contests. Side note: the conservative wing of the republican party sole mission is to keep the Clintons out of the White House, the Senate, and any other public office. However, Clinton won an additional 16% of the conservative republicans voting in the Texas democratic primary who said that Obama is the most electable candidate. Coinkydink? probably not. One can conclude from such a contradiction that the 16% are voting for who would be the weakest candidate in the general election so that their candidate, John McCain, has the best chance of winning. Considering that the Texas primary was won by Clinton with only a 2.8% margin, and republican turnout in the Texas primary was up from previous state contests by at least 3% and in some states as much as 5%, chances are that such tainted votes played a significant part in Clinton’s win in Texas, and to a lesser extent, Ohio. I have said this before, the longer the democrats drag this out, the increased likelihood of mischief by the Republican Party thereby allowing the conservative right wing of that party to choose the democratic nominee rather than the choice being made by true affiliates of the party. As mentioned in an earlier post, even republican governor and staunch John McCain supporter, Bill Crist is trying to influence the choice of democratic nominee. Those who think that a long drawn out fight is good for the Democratic Party should respond to the points in this post. This is not the way to get more voters involved in the process especially if such process is ripe for and can so easily be manipulated thereby making all the voter enthusiasm, dedication, and commitment, moot.
The latest Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll released today show a tightening race in Ohio. Clinton is slightly leading, but is within the margin of error, with 44% to Obama’s 42%. Update: new polls released on March 1st, show that Obama has essentially closed the gap on Clinton’s lead in Ohio. Cleveland Plain Dealer, Zogby, Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Real Clear Politics polls, all show the two candidates tied or within the margin of error. Less than two weeks ago, Clinton was leading in Ohio by double digits. The latest Reuters/CSPAN/Houston Chronicle poll for Texas shows Obama leading with 48% to Clinton’s 42% where again, two weeks ago, Clinton was leading by double digits. The rolling poll questions were asked to likely democratic primary voters. The breakdown of the candidates voting blocks are somewhat similar to voter breakdowns of previous contests. Obama leads in Ohio among cross-over republicans, independents, young voters, higher income voters, and blacks. Clinton leads among women, older voters, Catholics, union households and voters living outside of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati. Of voters who decided in the last month, Obama is significantly ahead of Clinton. Whereas Clinton is ahead with voters who made their decision over a month ago. It seems that Obama’s momentum continues despite what appears to be a pile-on from all directions. Clinton, McCain, and now even George Bush has joined in by telling Obama that he should be concentrating on winning the Democratic nomination instead of what is going on in the current White House. Can someone tell George Bush that he should be worrying about what is going on with gas prices in the United States rather than who said what in the Democratic primary. A reporter asked Bush yesterday, during a White House press conference, about analysts recent predictions of a potential increase of gas prices to $4 a gallon. Bush responded by saying that “he had not heard that.” Uhhh…..but you do know the latest tit-for-tat between the primary candidates. President Bush, please concentrate on your job, which is, in case you failed to read the job description, addressing several pressing issues facing our country, e.g., skyrocketing gasoline prices, the economy, foreign affairs, the Iraq war, etc…. We do not care about your punditry with respect to our next president. In case you haven’t noticed Mr. President, your approval rating is at 30%. It may be because you are watching too much television and not tending to the job that you were sent to Washington, DC to do. Anyway, back to the current candidates. Most say that Clinton has to win both Texas and Ohio, including her husband, to remain relevant in this race. Two weeks ago, most were saying that she not only has to win but has to win by large margins. Now they’re saying that even if she wins by a small margin as long as she wins. And the absolute latest from the pundits and the from some in the Clinton campaign is that she only has to win either Texas or Ohio to remain in the race. Whoops…I spoke too soon, the absolute absolute latest is that Obama must win all four contests on Jr. Tuesday for Clinton to be no longer viable. Unbelievable!! The goal post keeps moving for Clinton, and she accuses Obama of receiving special treatment from the press. It really is time to choose a nominee, regardless of how much enjoyment the media is getting out of this long protracted primary season. The longer this stretches out, the less time voters have to really weigh the positions of the general election candidates and make an informed decision about our next leader.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had their final debate, before the Jr Tuesday March 4th primaries, in Ohio. Both candidates held their own. There were a couple of tense moments where both candidates accused each other of negative campaign tactics and clashed over Healthcare, NAFTA, Iraq, and foreign policy. Clinton mentioned the Saturday Night Live clip and attempted to rehash the joke by asking whether the moderators wanted to offer Obama a pillow. I don’t think that she got the response from the audience that she hoped for. Clinton also mentioned that she is always being called on first for questions but doesn’t mind, however, did want the moderators to be aware of it. Some predict that the statement was an attempt to garner sympathy from voters regarding her alleged unfair treatment by the press. I also think that Clinton was trying to find an opening to use the Saturday Night Live skit, and when one didn’t present itself soon enough, she created an opening. Unfortunately for her, again, the attempted joke fell flat. Maureen Dowd writes an article in the New York Times regarding the alleged Obama favorable press charge by the Clinton campaign. The gist of the article is that the charge is silly because of the special treatment that the Clinton campaign has received. As an example, the article offers as proof of the openmindness of the press, the fact that no other candidate could lose 11 contests in a row by such large margins and still be embraced and touted by the press as a major contender. We have all heard it, “don’t count a Clinton out,” “Hillary could come back.” Does anyone actually believe that if the situation were reversed and Obama had lost 11 contests in a row by such wide margins that the press would still be touting him as a contender? Visions of Mike Huckabee comes to mind. Democratic party leaders would be asking him to fade out so that the party can began moving toward the general election. Clinton also finally said that she regrets her vote on the Iraq war. Unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, the debate was not a game changer. The Clinton campaign went in hoping for a major blunder by Obama, or at least a big moment, that will somehow turn the tide in its direction. That moment didn’t come. Both candidates performed well and the debate seemed to this writer to be a draw. However, current MSNBC post-debate polls show that 70% of the people watching the debate thought that Obama won, while 30% thought Clinton won out of the 97,000 people who have voted. Latest national polls released before the debate also revealed that Obama is now leading Clinton by double digits. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama closing in on Clinton’s lead in Ohio with Clinton at 48% and Obama at 43%. According to the latest CNN poll, Obama is leading in Texas with 50% to Clinton’s 46%.
Barack Obama won handily in Hawaii by 76% of the vote. Obama’s winning streak increases by 2, to equal 10 wins in a row. It looks as if the Windy City Senator has won the momentum fight going into the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio. Wisconsin was a sort of test site for the Clinton campaign as to whether its decision to use negative campaigning would boost their numbers and slim Obama’s margin of victory. Clinton campaign officials have said that they will continue to go negative because the strategy did work in Wisconsin, even though Obama won by 17 percentage points. The campaign opines that the Wisconsin victory margin is less than that of the Potomac Primaries so the strategy was a success. Wisconsin exit polls revealed that 58% of voters felt that the Clinton campaign unfairly criticized Obama. Only 33% thought that the Obama campaign unfairly criticized Clinton. Wisconsin is known for its distaste of negative campaigning. Further revelations from the exit polls showed that 51% of the voters thought that Obama would be the best Commander-in-Chief. Also, when Wisconsin voters were asked who cares about them, 54% believes that Obama cares more about them as people. For Clinton to be competitive for the nomination at this point, she will have to win over 70% of the popular vote in the remaining battleground states. In which, she would receive 65 percent of the delegates in those states. This would be a shock heard around the world if Clinton were able to pull off such a feat given the dynamics of the race thus far. If Obama wins 65 percent of the remaining delegates, he can win the nomination with just elected delegates. The Senator would not need the superdelegates, he could clinch the nomination just from the primary and caucus vote. Obama now leads Clinton in elected delegates by about 150, has won more states, and leads in the popular vote.
After a fierce battle between Obama and Clinton in the Copper State, Obama shines. The Senator from Illinois wins Wisconsin by a significant margin of 58% to 41%. The Clinton campaign was hoping to reduce the victory margin to a single digit win but Obama won by 17 points. Wisconsin has 74 elected delegates and 18 superdelegates available, totaling 92 delegates up for grabs in the state. Wisconsin was true blue but has shown a tendency to swing or be purple due to the influx of progressives in the state. The Badger State is also a critical win for Democrats in November. Having said all of that, the state is also tailor made for Hillary Clinton. White working class voters make up the majority of the electorate. The significance of this Obama victory is not missed because the Senator has again broadened his coalition. The white women vote was split almost evenly between Clinton and Obama with Clinton winning the group 53% to Obama’s 45%. Obama won white men 62% to Clinton’s 36% and made inroads with working class voters increasing his percentage to 48% to Clinton’s 51%. Clinton did win with three other groups: seniors, voters with less than a college education, and catholic voters. The Illinois Senator won 63% of all voters who decided in the last month. As to the issues, Obama won on healthcare, the war in Iraq, the economy, and electability. According to exit polls, seven in ten voters believe that international trade takes jobs from the United States. The North American Free Trade Agreement may have hurt Hillary in this regard because many states like Wisconsin and Ohio have been deindustrialized because of the Agreement. It is significant that Bill Clinton was the primary force behind the passage of NAFTA. Another contributing factor to the outcome of the Wisconsin contest is same day voter registration, citizens can register to vote and actually vote on election day. In addition, Wisconsin is an open primary where independents and republicans vote in the democratic primary, two groups that tend to go for Obama. The exit polls also revealed the following facts about Wisconsin voters: 43% thought the economy is the most important issue; 29% are concerned about the war in Iraq; 25% are concerned with healthcare; 90% of the voters thought the economy is not doing well; 17% of voters were first time primary voters; 27% were independent voters; 59% of the voters had income levels over $50,000. McCain also won in Wisconsin and Washington state. McCain will receive the 40 delegates from Wisconsin and 19 delegates from Washington state.
A large group of American voters will decide who they think can best bring the change that America needs in these very turbulant times. However, as far as the democrats are concerned, chances are that the decision will not be definitively decided today. Last I checked, the democratic race was a dead heat. In the national polls, Obama has steadily closed in on Clinton’s lead. In the USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary is at 45% and Obama is at 44%. CNN/Opinion Research shows Obama leading Clinton 49% to 46%. The ABC World News poll shows Clinton leading 47% to Obama’s 43%. Finally, the latest Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll show Obama with a slight lead in key Super Tuesday states such as California, Georgia, and Missouri. As a side note, when the California results are in and the public begins to evaluate the outcome of the California democratic race, the public should keep in mind that California voters have been mailing in their ballots since January 7th when Clinton was ahead in California by double digits. End of side note. However, considering the tightning of the Obama-Clinton race and the fact that Obama is now slightly leading in California, undoubtedly demonstrates that Obama’s message is resonating with California voters. On the republican side, McCain has an average 16 point lead over the other republican candidates. As a caveat, now that I have flooded you with polling information, after what happened in New Hampshire, my faith in the polling system is considerably diminished. So don’t rely on the polls to make your choice for President. Okay…back to the Super Tuesdays states. Georgia will probably be the first big decision of the night. California will probably be the last big decision of the night. However, the most important decision is yours. The best way that voters can make certain that their will is reflected in Super Tuesday, and in Washington DC in November, is to make sure that they get out and vote for the candidate of their choice. Change begins with YOU.
