Obama is a mere 11 delegates away from becoming the presumptive democratic nominee. Sen. Barack Obama has 2107 delegates, gaining a total of 28 delegates so far today. The Senator needs 2118 delegates to reach the majority and clinch the nomination. See list below.
Compiled by davidkc
State Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal (MO)
Yes, the long awaited day has arrived. After six months of fighting, kicking, scratching, and clawing between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, the last two states of Montana and South Dakota will vote. The polling hours in Montana are 7am – 8pm. In South Dakota the polling hours are 7am – 7pm. For those on the East Coast the final poll in Montana will close at 10pm EST and 9pm EST in South Dakota. In South Dakota voters must present photo identification in order to vote. In Montana, voters must present identification that may be photo but also can be non-photo identification such as a current utility bill, bank statement, paycheck, voter registration confirmation notice, government check, or other government document that shows your name and current address.
Many questions will be answered tonight There is mounting evidence that Sen. Hillary Clinton will end her campaign tonight. Exhibits A-H. a) Bill Clinton said yesterday, “this may be the last day I am ever involved in a campaign like this. ” b) Sen. Clinton summoned all of her top supporters and donors to New York for her Tuesday night speech. c) Clinton campaign spokesperson said “it started in New York and it will end in New York.” d) Clinton instructed staff members to turn in all of their outstanding expense reports. e) being reported that Clinton has begun post-campaign bargaining with Obama. g) Blank schedule after Tuesday. h) Clinton gave her advance staff two options for tonight, they can either told use their ticket to fly to New York for her speech and party afterwards or they can fly home and await further instructions. If members of the advance staff choose to fly to New York they will be financially responsible for their own flight home. There are 34 House members prepared to endorse Barack Obama. Obama is expected to claim victory of the primary process tonight in his speech in St. Paul Minnesota. It has been an excruciatingly long and hard fought race for the candidates and for the American people and now both candidates are about to cross the finish line. Every voter will have had their opportunity to vote and we, hopefully, will have our presumptive democratic nominee. Obama is favored to win both South Dakota and Montana. Obama is now 37 delegates away from claiming the nomination. Clinton needs 198 delegates to claim victory. The Obama campaign hopes to roll out superdelegates in groups today so that he has enough to claim victory tonight. It is being reported that the Clinton campaign is asking superdelegates not to do it tonight but tomorrow instead. That would not be a good idea in this writers opinion considering that the Obama campaign is holding its last rally in the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota , the site of the Republican national convention and were John McCain will accept the Republican nomination. If the superdelegates do not come out for Obama today it could end up being a potential embarassment for the presumptive democratic nominee. This is not about the Clintons or the Obamas at this point. This is about starting the general election off on the right foot. Superdelegates must make their decision known today so as not to give the impression that the Clintons are still running the show or worst yet giving the appearance that they are not quite ready to rally behind Obama. The primary process is over, its time to take a stand. If the plan is to win in November, the Democratic Party cannot afford any missteps.
Too early to get a final margin because Oregon is a mail-in vote and the votes are still being counted. With 88% of the vote in, the margin is Obama 58%, Clinton 42%. This win marks a significant milestone for Sen. Barack Obama. The Illinois senator now has won the majority of pledge delegates. What does that mean? Clinton needs 104.17% of the remaining delegates to beat the majority that Obama has secured. Obtaining such a majority is mathematically impossible. There are only 86 pledge delegates left to be won in the remaining states. There are three primaries left, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. In his speech in Iowa last night, Obama told his supporters that the “nomination is within reach.”
Today are two of the last pivotal races in this protracted democratic primary. There are approximately 103 delegates up for grabs in Oregon and Kentucky. Both states are closed primaries with 52 delegates at stake in Oregon and 51 delegates at stake in Kentucky. Oregon is a mail-in primary where the votes begin the counting today and should have a pretty good indication as to who won the state by around 8pm at which time half the ballots will have been counted. In Kentucky the polls close at 7pm EST and Oregonians can drop ballots off at designated locations until 11pm EST tonight. Though the increase in voter registration has not been nearly as significant as in earlier states, the excitement about Oregon and Kentucky has not been muffled. This is demonstrated by the 75,000 strong crowd that showed up to hear Barack Obama speak in Oregon last weekend. Though Obama will not officially declare his victory, he will unofficially receive his coronation as the democratic nominee. Clinton is expected to win an easy victory in Kentucky, but not in any way close to the victory margin that she received in West Virginia. Yesterday on the campaign trail, Clinton offered as a boost to her legitimacy as the more electable candidate, that Karl Rove endorsed her as the more electable candidate. Yes she really gave Karl Rove as her personal endorser! Times are rough as the primary season ends when you as a democrat sight Karl Rove as support for your candidacy. And you accept such support knowing that it is only given because Karl Rove believes that you are in fact the weaker candidate and therefore would be a better opponent against John McCain. Back to today’s races, Obama is expected to win Oregon and get the remaining 16 pledged delegates needed to obtain a guaranteed pledge delegate majority. A candidate needs a total of 1627 to win a absolute majority of the pledged delegates. As of today Obama has 1612 pledge delegates. After tonight’s primary results he should easily capture the remaining 16 delegates needed to clinch the pledge delegate majority. Another interesting fact is that if Obama gets 52 delegates total out of both states tonight, he will obtain the majority pledge delegates even if you count Florida and Michigan as is. This will end Clinton’s argument that of if you count Michigan and Florida she wins. However, this writer is sure that the Clinton campaign will come up with yet a new metric of Clinton spin. The current delegate count, including pledge and superdelegates, is Obama 1913 to Clinton’s 1719.
Barack Obama attracted the largest crowd of this primary in Portland Oregon this past weekend. The record drawing crowd was at least 75,000 strong with spectators watching from the lawn of the Tom McCall Waterfront Park. The park could not hold the enormous crowd so Oregonians watched from boats, outside the park, and any other place that would allow them access to the Illinois senator. Portland is the state’s largest urban area and has been monikered by its residents as “the whitest major city in the United States.” The state of Oregon is also a breeding ground for anti-war activism and sentiment, so Obama’s opposition the the Iraq war contributed to him being an early favorite in the state. Tomorrow, residents of Oregon and Kentucky will have their say at the ballot box. Though Obama has virtually conceded Kentucky to Clinton, the Illinois senator is expected to pull out a decisive victory in Oregon. Obama is not expected to declare victory tomorrow for fear of appearing presumptuous. However, the Windy City senator will have won the most pledge delegates and a win in Oregon will make it officially impossible for Clinton, in the remaining primaries, to overtake his pledge delegate lead. Obama will have to pull out a decent victory in Oregon and decrease Clinton’s margin of victory in Kentucky. If the feedback from the Obama call banks are anything to go by, Clinton’s margin of victory will not be as large in the Bluegrass State as it was in West Virginia. Kentucky is a culturally conservative state that does not care for Wall Street but there is a growing populous discontent in the state. Republicans are polling poorly in the state and this may offer an opportunity for Sen. Obama to take advantage. Having said all that, even though Obama will essentially win the nomination tomorrow, declaring victory may antagonize Clinton supporters thereby making it more difficult to unify the party after the primary season is completed. That does not change the reality however that this race is over. Nor does it take away from the fact that the Obama camp have solid and legitimate reasons for optimism. One being the fact that not a single superdelegate, uncommitted or undeclared, can be found to say that he/she would be willing, despite Obama’s pledge delegate lead, to overturn the result and make Clinton the nominee. Therefore, Obama is on solid footing in his belief that he will become the official democratic nominee on Tuesday night. Sen. Obama has chosen to spend Tuesday, not in Kentucky or Oregon, but in Iowa. The place where his imminent rise in contention and legitimacy began. Obama spent eight months in Iowa prior to its primary. Eight months well spent by most calculations.
According to thestate.com is reporting that six of John Edwards’ eight South Carolina delegates are backing Barack Obama for president.
The head of John Edwards South Carolina presidential campaign told CNN that at least six of the eight delegates Edwards won in S.C. are ready to vote for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama at the Democratic presidential convention.
Columbia attorney John Moylan appeared on the cable news channel this morning.
Edwards endorsed the campaign of his former rival last night.
Edwards’ delegates are free to vote for whichever candidate they choose, but delegate Robert Groce said he would choose Obama.
“I was elected to represent John Edwards. I will honor his request,” said Groce, 40 and a Summerville resident. “I’m very comfortable that either one (Obama or U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton) could assume the office and do a good job. The party has really benefitted from having so many good candidates.”
Edwards’ S.C. delegates plan to release a statement later today
After John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama last night, one of his delegates did not wast any time in rallying behind the Illinois senator. Joshua Denton, a New Hampshire Democratic Party delegate and Iraq war veteran said that he will support Barack Obama now that Edwards has endorsed Obama. See his statement below.
A New Hampshire Democratic Party delegate who had supported John Edwards says he will support Barack Obama, now that Edwards has endorsed his former political rival for the party’s presidential nominee.
more stories like thisJoshua Denton of Portsmouth, 26, an Iraq war veteran, says he thinks that both Obama and Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Republican nominee John McCain. He thinks that Obama is the change the country needs, along with having the best chance of beating McCain in the general election.
“My fear with Hillary was just because she is who she is — for better or worse — she would sink, not just lose the presidency,” but Democrats in Congress, Denton said Wednesday. – Boston Globe
The state of the race at this point is as follows. Sen. Hillary Clinton needs 171 of the remaining 189 pledge delegates to overtake Obama’s lead. That means that Clinton will need 91% of the remaining pledged delegates to secure victory. Broken down even further, Clinton will need to win 91% of the vote in every remaining state including Puerto Rico. Side point about Puerto Rico: it cannot vote in the general election so it does not help Clinton’s argument that she is more electable in the general election even if she wins it in the primary. Back to the facts. Given that Obama has a significant lead in Oregon right now of an average 52% to Clinton’s 35%, he will at least net 26 delegates of the 52 delegates being allotted. Currently Obama enjoys a 153 pledged delegate lead over Sen. Clinton. Obama only needs 19 delegates to win the insurmountable majority of the pledged delegates. Because the majority of superdelegates agree that overturning the collected will of the people would be disastrous for the party, Obama basically clinches the nomination on May 20th, the night of the Kentucky and Oregon primaries. Looks like that is all she wrote.
Rep. Pete Visclosky (IN) has endorsed Barack Obama, as well as Christine Schon Marques. Marques is the chair of the Democrats Abroad and is assigned .5 votes at the Democratic convention. College Democrat Chairs Awais Khaleel (WI) and Lauren Wolfe (MI) endorsed Obama late last night. Not sure how much of the Michigan vote of confidence by Lauren Wolfe will be counted. Obama is also receiving the endorsements of 3 fomer SEC chairmen today, one of which worked for President Bush. William Donaldson, who was SEC chairman for about 2½ years from early 2003, along with Clinton and Reagan appointees Arthur Levitt and David Ruder.
Clinton also picked up 1 superdelegate, Vicky Harwell, president of the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women.
A total of 330,714 people voted in Virginia yesterday, 76,000 of which voted in early voting. Clinton pulled out a substantial win of 67% to Obama’s 26%. Given the fact that Obama did not campaign in West Virginia, such a wide margin was expected. A total of 28 delegates will be awarded. Pundits are asking why did West Virginians vote for Clinton knowing that most have proclaimed the race over and Obama as the nominee? To that question I have a different question, why did 7% of West Virginians vote for John Edwards even though he has been out of the race since January? A notable percentage of West Virginians appear to be saying we don’t like the woman or the black guy. This bolsters an argument that I make later in this article. The exit polls revealed that 20% of West Virginia voters thought race an important factor in their decision. That is a pretty high number to overcome. However, it is not insurmountable with a few more visits to the state. Many of the pundits are punditing that Obama may have an issue in the general if he is unable to connect with the type of working class voters that make up West Virginia. My question is, are the pundits overstating the importance of carrying the white vote? Why is it only republican stategist and pundits like Pat Buchannan, Joe Scaborough, Tucker Carlson, and Lou Dobbs that insist that Obama has a problem because he is not winning every single identity group? Also, why is it only the republican strategists and pundits who continue to promote the idea of a “Dream Ticket?” It seems to me that if the conservative right cannot get Clinton on the top of the ticket, they will accept her in the VP spot just to get her on the ticket. As I’ve mentioned before, nothing rallies the conservative base like the potential of the Clintons back in the White House. Just as background, West Virginia voted for Bush twice and traditionally is a very conservative state. My guess is that if Clinton expects to hold such voters in a general election, she is miscaculating. Pundits say that Clinton has been able to connect with working class voters in West Virginia, I say that the connection is fleeting when John “maverick” McCain enters the picture. A Quinnipiac national poll released today makes my point. McCain is leading Obama among white voters 47% to 40% but McCain is also leading Clinton 48% to 41% among white voters. This really undercuts Clinton’s argument that she appeals more to whit voters. If there was no Obama on the ticket in Westy Virginia, chances are that such voters would not be supporting Clinton in the numbers that they did yesterday. Simply because of the Clinton’s history and identity-politics. One problem evidenced by the West Virginia exit polls is that 50% of West Virginians believe that Obama shares Rev. Wright’s views. This is clearly a result of not campaigning in the state, something that can be remedied in the general election. Obama won neighboring Virginia by 29 percentage points so it is very probable that he will bring West Virginians into the fold. Finally, a bit of historical perspective. The last democrat that carried the white vote in a presidential election was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Bob Dole carried the white vote in his presidential bid against Bill Clinton in 1996 and as most of you know, Dole lost. It seems to be more important to build a coalition that is a cross-section of all of America. What does the West Virginia win mean….it does not change the race in any way but does give the pundits something to talk about for the next week until the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on May 20th.
Today West Virginia holds its democratic presidential primary. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama take their contest to the Appalachian state. There are 28 delegates at stake in West Virginia and Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to win the state by at least 30 percentage points.
The polls are open from 6:30am to 7:30pm. Voter Hotline: 1-866-SOS-VOTE (1-866-767-8683)
Voters may enter their precinct any time duing those hours to cast their vote. Independents may vote in the democratic primary simply request a democratic ballot. Here are a few more tips to help with the process.
Yesterday after Obama’s decisive North Carolina victory and Clinton’s squeaker win in Indiana, the Obama campaign announced three new superdelegates: Jerry Meek, chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party, Jeanette Council, a member of the D.N.C. from North Carolina and Inola Henry, a member of the D.N.C. from California. Obama also gained a fourth superdelegate– Virginia Assembly member Jennifer McClellan, who switched from Clinton. McClellan is the ninth Clinton superdelegate who have switched to Obama since the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5. Thus far there have been no switches from Obama to Clinton. McClellan gave the following statement in a conference call with reporters as to why she decided to support Obama, “I think the time has come to support Senator Obama as the likely nominee,”….. “Given what happened last night, it’s very unlikely we will have a different result, and it is time to come together as a party and prepare for victory against John McCain in November.” The current delegate count, including superdelegates is Obama 1847.5, Clinton 1697. A total of 2025 delegates are needed to win the democratic nomination.
According to George Stephanopolous this morning, superdelegates should start coming out today three, four, or five at a time. Stephanopolous believes, and said as much, that this nomination is locked up. Clinton also is reported to have loaned herself an additional $6.4 million last month which bring the total amount she has lent her campaign to 11.4 million. The Obama campaign sent the following letter to superdelegates today.
TO: Superdelegates
FROM: David Plouffe, Campaign Manager
RE: An Update on the Race for Delegates
DA: May 7, 2008There are only six contests remaining in the Democratic primary calendar and only 217 pledged delegates left to be awarded. Only 7 percent of the pledged delegates remain on the table. There are 260 remaining undeclared superdelegates, for a total of 477 delegates left to be awarded.
With North Carolina and Indiana complete, Barack Obama only needs 172 total delegates to capture the Democratic nomination. This is only 36% of the total remaining delegates.
Conversely, Senator Clinton needs 326 delegates to reach the Democratic nomination, which represents a startling 68% of the remaining delegates.
With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.
We believe it is exceedingly unlikely Senator Clinton will overtake our lead in the popular vote and in fact lost ground on that measure last night. However, the popular vote is a deeply flawed and illegitimate metric for deciding the nominee – since each campaign based their strategy on the acquisition of delegates. More importantly, the rules of the nomination are predicated on delegates, not popular vote.
Just as the Presidential election in November will be decided by the electoral college, not popular vote, the Democratic nomination is decided by delegates.
If we believed the popular vote was somehow the key measurement, we would have campaigned much more intensively in our Read the rest of this entry »
Barack Obama wins North Carolina by a whopping 14 point margin 56-42! Sen. Clinton wins Indiana by a slight margin of 51-49. Sen. Clinton said in the days leading up to the North Carolina that the state would be a game changer. Apparently North Carolinians made the decision that they would not be gamed. Both states experienced record turnout during this primary. Over 1.5 million voters turned out in North Carolina. Over 1 million voted in Indiana. Obama shifts to general election mode and most say that the elected delegate is over. Most say that Obama is now the nominee. Obama improved his numbers with women in both states. Clinton has had arguably the best four weeks of her campaign with allies such as the press, republicans, and John McCain. Obama on the other hand has had the worst four weeks of his campaign and the Clinton campaign was unable to capitalize on it. For the past two months Obama was hit from all sides; the media, all the Clintons, the republican party, John McCain, Rush Limbaugh, etc., and Sen. Obama weathered the storm beautifully. The idea that this freshman Senator from Illinois will be the nominee for the President of the United States is an absolutely extraordinary accomplishment of Obama, his campaign, and the American people. Anyone who says that he cannot beat Sen. McCain in the general election are simply blowing smoke. Obama has shown numerous times what he is made of and now it’s time for the superdelegates to put us all out of our misery and call this thing. Clinton’s numbers with core democratic groups such as African-Americans are becoming more and more dismal. While Obama’s numbers with women and low income white voters have steadily improved. Clinton won a mere 6% of the African-American vote in North Carolina and only 8% in Indiana. These numbers are down from Ohio and Pennsylvania which were 13% and 10% respectively. Obama increased his popular vote number by 240,000 votes. This is more than Clinton the 200,000 votes than Clinton won Pennsylvania by. The question now is when will Clinton bow out gracefully? Does not make sense for Clinton to continue this race if there is not a realistic chance of her winning in the popular vote or in elected delegates? Not really. There is no rational reason to continue. Superdelegates now do not have a reason to hold back and drag this race out until June. Clinton has lost her last chance to pull an upset and it is time to unify behind the nominee. UPDATE: Tim Russert proclaims Obama the nominee and Clinton cancelled all morning interviews and campaign appearances for today. It looks like this is finally coming to its conclusion folks.
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Joe Andrew, who Bill Clinton appointed Chairman of the Democratic National Committee in 1999, has just switched his support from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama. Andrew has been a supporter of Sen. Clinton since she first announced her bid for the presidency. Andrew made is announcement at a press conference in his hometown of Indianapolis, Indiana Thursday morning. During the press conference Andrew encouraged his fellow Democrats and Hoosiers to end this madness and unite behind Barack Obama for Tuesdays primary. In his telephone interview with the Associated Press Andrew said “I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it’s now bad for the Democratic Party.” Andrew also cited additional reasons for his switch in a letter to superdelegates. In the letter the former DNC Chairman says ”a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain.” Andrew went on to say “[w]hile I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us,” Andrew continued. “John McCain, without doing much of anything, is now competitive against both of our remaining candidates. We are doing his work for him and distracting Americans from the issues that really affect all of our lives.” Andrew said that teh Obama campaign never asked him to switch his support but he did so after witnessing the principled way that Obama has handled two recent issues that have challenged his campaign. The Wright controversy and the gas tax holiday qestion. Andrew praised the fact that Obama stuck to his guns with respect to the gas tax holiday even though the politically expedient thing to do would have been to go along with Clinton and McCain on this issue. And, he also praised Obama’s handling of the Jeremiah Wright controversy saying that Obama “has shown such mettle under fire.” Andrew’s decision also increases Obama’s superdelegate count thereby clossing in on Clinton’s current lead. The current count for superdelegates 247-263 Clinton. However, Obama leads in the delegate count overall 1735.5 to 1597.5 for Clinton. Last count, 230 superdelegates remain undecided, and about 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring
Not a game changer but doesn’t put Clinton away. Clinton cannot come close to winning the delegate count without winning all of the remaining contests by more than an 80% margin. Her only remaining argument……the superdelegates. Clinton will attempt to convince the superdelegates that for whatever reason Obama cannot close the deal and she will be a stronger general election candidate. The only problem with her argument is that Obama has secured a very important voting block……the majority of the American voting public. If Clinton is perceived to have stolen the nomination from Obama by way of a decision of the superdelegates, she will officially become unelectable after such decision is made. The democratic party will have disenfranchised not only the african-american community, but the hoards of new voters who have been inspired by Obama’s message and candidacy. No democrat since Franklin Roosevelt has won the presidency without the support of the african-american community. Because Obama is winning in the delegate count, the popular vote count, states won count, the fundraising count, and the new voter count, it is hard to deny his superior electability. These are all areas that speak to the progression of the democratic party. Not to mention that Obama has run a magnificent campaign in comparison to Clinton. It is amazing that the Senator from Illinois has been able to put together such a remarkable campaign considering how fresh he is to national politics. He has put together an innovative fundraising machine by concentrating on small donors as opposed to large VIP donors who usually contribute the bulk of funds in democratic contests. He has an enormous history setting volunteer network. He realized early how to organize caucus states to his benefit knowing that running against Clinton will be like running against “the first family” of the democratic party. The ability to organize and rally such a diverse coalition is an attribute that is essential to any CEO of any company. Such qualities speak volumes about a candidates leadership ability. Obama decreased Clinton’s 25 point lead to 9 points in Pennsylvania even though the state is tailor made Clinton country. Demographically speaking, Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the country, blue collar, and catholic. All voting blocks that have gone for Hillary throughout this primary season. Also, women made up 47% of the vote in Pennsylvania. However, these are older white women as opposed to younger white women where Obama usually does well in. Older white women is Clinton’s most loyal voting block. The shock is that the New York Senator did not win by at least 15 to 20 points. Also with respect to fundraising, people tend to put their money where their mouth is…..if voters are not putting their money where their mouth is, then they are not really talking. The Clinton campaign is running on gasoline fumes right now. In contrast, democrats, republicans, and independents are contributing to Obama in droves, to the tune of 40 million as a matter of fact. Why can’t Obama close the deal….the question should be why can’t Clinton close the deal? Voters and supporters are not contributing the Clinton campaign with the same vigor. The Clinton campaign is officially broke and operating in the red. They were able to raise 2.5 million last night but they are still operating in the red even with that minor funding boost. Even with a fundraising spike after the Pennsylvania win, sustainability is the problem facing the Clinton campaign. Democrats are just not donating to Clinton’s campaign in the numbers that they are to the Obama campaign. Clinton also started out this contest as the presumptive nominee, Obama came out of nowhere and threw a monkey wrench into her plans. Why has Clinton not sewn up this nomination, and worse yet, why is she behind by all metrics used to determine victory? That is a question that needs to be explored in more depth. As mentioned above, Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania is not the significant win that it needed to be to make voters pause about Obama’s candidacy. Clinton won in Pennsylvania by the same margin or less that she did Ohio. Obama improved his numbers with older voters and women in Pennsylvania since Ohio. Women voted for Clinton 59% to Obama’s 41%. Clinton did maintain her stronghold with women, older voters, and catholics. However, Obama also kept his stronghold on new, young, and educated voters, as well as african-americans. Also, as a final point, 13% of voters in the exit poll said that race mattered in their vote. Of that 13%, 3 out of 4 voted for Clinton over Obama. There are a lot of white working class voters that may have a problem voting for a black candidate. This was probably demonstrated in Ohio and Pennsylvania. There are also a lot of older voters who are loyal to the Clintons because of their 20 year presence on the national political stage. In which case, Obama may need to find a way to reach these two demographics. Is it possible to do so within the remaining months in the election cycle? Probably. If he can convince these voting blocks that he can represent them and talk to them on a level that makes them feel that he will be fighting for their interests regardless of what their beliefs are, then he has a great chance of getting their votes.
Clinton wins Pennsylvania. As of Wednesday morning, according to the most recent tabulation from the Pennsylvania Secretary of State, the current spread is 54.6% to 45.4% with 99.99% of the votes counted. This is only a 9% spread which is much different than what the main stream media is reporting as 10%.
Obama actually improved his numbers since Ohio, even though Pennsylvania is tailor made for Hillary Clinton. In Ohio the spred was 10%, in Pennsylvania it is only 9%. Pennsylvania has the second oldest population in the country, a demographic that is primed for a Clinton win. This was also a closed primary where independents and republicans, two groups that Obama usually carries, were not allowed to vote. Pennsylvania will divide 158 delegates proportionally between Obama and Clinton. Turnout was 52%, double the turnout in 2004. Exit polls reveal that voters whose primary issue is the economy are voting for Clinton 57 to 43. Voters whose primary issue is Iraq are voting for Obama 57% to 43%. There were 300,000 new voters in Pennsylvania, 35% of which are in Philadelphia and suburbs also known as Obama country. 17% of undecided voters made up their minds in the last three days. Seniors vote to Clinton 61 to 38. African-American vote to Obama 92 to 8. White male to Clinton 55 to 45. 42% says U.S. in a serious recession. Less than 1% consider electability an issue. Pennsylvania voters rated the following issues as most important: change 49%, experience 26%, cares about me 14%, electability 8%. 54% think that the economy is the most important issue, and 28% think that Iraq is most important. 1 in 5 Clinton voters feel that Obama will be the nominee. 64% of women voted for Clinton. 55% of white males voted for Clinton, 45% voted for Obama. As for voters who thought that either candidate attacked the other unfairly, 67% thought that Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, and 48% thought that Obama attacked Obama unfairly. Late deciders who decided within the last three days went to Clinton. Newly registered democrats backed Obama. In addition, 29% of those newly registered voters said that they would not vote for Clinton if she is the nominee. Clinton will probably net about 14 more delegates than Obama out of Pennsylvania, in addition to increasing her popular vote count by 200,000.
Sen. Bob Casey endorses Barack Obama for President. Sen. Casey is also a superdelegate. The Senator makes his anouncement kicks ff a week long bus tour that Obama will be doing through Pennsylvania. This gives Obama one more superdelegate as well as street cred in Pennsylvania. Sen. Casey also has a lot of clout with working class Pennsylvanians as well as catholic voters.
Barack Obama wins a landslide victory in Mississippi. Final count, Obama 61%, Clinton 37%. Obama and Clinton battled it out in the Mississippi Delta and Obama inhaled the sweet smell of magnolias. Mississippi voters came out for the Illinois senator big time. The turnout in Mississippi was two and a half times what the Secretary of State predicted. Over 400,000 people came out to vote in the Magnolia State. More people turned out in this primary than in the 2004 general election. The state will proportionally distribute 33 delegates to the candidates. Exit polls further revealed that Mississippi voters think that Barack Obama is more qualified to be Commander and Chief, 54% to Clinton’s 43%. Obama also won the 17-29 voting block 67% to Clinton’s 32%. Clinton won the 65 and older voting block 56% to Obama’s 44%. Clinton also won white voters 72% to Obama’s 28%. However, Obama won African-American voters 91% to Clinton’s 9%. Of voters who decided in the last 3 days, Clinton won 55% to Obama’s 45%. Mississippi voters were also asked if they believe that Obama is honest and trustworthy, 70% said yes. When asked whether they believe that Clinton is honest and trustworthy, only 48% said yes. Obama also increased his popular vote lead over Clinton by 100,000 votes. One interesting fact that came from the exit polls is that a majority of Clinton voters in Mississippi have a favorable view of John McCain. Therefore, it stands to reason that if Clinton’s voters have a favorable view of the GOP candidate, that they are more open to being persuaded to vote for McCain in the general election than Obama supporters. A possible Clinton electability issue that should be explored further. Both candidates campaigned heavily in Mississippi. The state has an open primary were independents and republicans voted. What was most on the minds of Mississippi voters, Katrina recovery. The state has been devastated Katrina and recovery is not coming soon enough for its citizens. Voters looked to the candidates for commitments to make the recovery a priority. Healthcare and the economy were also big issues for Mississippi voters. Breaking News Update: CNN just reported that Barack Obama won the Texas caucus. This fact gives Obama a higher delegate gain in Texas than Clinton. Because Texas is a two-step process, logic dictates that the candidate who comes out ahead after combining the two steps is the winner of the Texas primacaucus. Obama received a combined total of 99 delegates from Texas, Clinton received a combined total of 94 delegates. Final tally, a net gain of 5 delegates for Obama. Therefore, Obama won Texas! Obama continues to lead in the delegate count 1608 to Clinton’s 1478.
Top Clinton campaign surrogate and Governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, said yesterday on Meet the Press with Tim Russert, that even if Obama is ahead in the popular vote, ahead in elected delegates, and ahead in states won, Clinton should still win the nomination. In other words, okay kids (electorate),…go play in the romper room and let the grown ups take it from here. Russert asked Rendell again…even if Obama is ahead in ELECTED delegates, should Obama win the nomination? Rendell answered…no, Clinton should still be the nominee. Rendell then said something to the effect of, the voters don’t really understand what is going on so it’s up to us to make their decision for them..i.e. thank you kids….the big boys will take over from here. It is the height of insult and condescension to the American people, who are more informed and engaged and have come out and participated in greater numbers than any other election in history. That inescapable fact seems to be irrelevant to the Clinton campaign. According to Campaign Clinton, the will of the voters is immaterial. The campaign’s attitude appears to be that the voters don’t matter….us politicians (meaning the Clinton campaign and its surrogates), know what is best for America. The campaign also continues to make the disingenuous argument that because Clinton won some of the big states that she somehow has an edge over Obama in a general election. Does the Clinton campaign really expect the American people to believe that because she won a few LARGE states, by a small margin, that are ALWAYS won, with the exception of Ohio, by the democratic candidate in the general election, that hers is a stronger case than Obama’s double digit wins in both LARGE states and red states, therefore putting in play such republican states as Virginia, Missouri, Minnesota and Iowa for the general election??? Obama’s wins effectively enlarge the democratic electorate/base dramatically and demonstrably thereby significantly increasing the party’s chances of victory in the fall. Just to put things in perspective, John Kerry won PENNSYLVANIA, New York, Rhode Island, New Jersey, California, and Massachusetts in the 2004 election against George W. Bush. So all the states that the Clinton campaign claims as ”better” wins than Obama’s, are solid blue states that have been won by the democratic candidate in the general election for the last several decades. Therefore, it stands to reason and logic that Obama will also win such states in the fall. Enough with the empty and false arguments. The latest Clinton campaign strategy, at least in Mississippi, is the Jedi mind-trick strategy. Clinton, behind in the popular vote, behind in states won, and behind in elected delegates, is attempting to offer Barack Obama the vice president position. In other words, the person in the number two position, is offering the person in the number one position, the number two spot. The Clinton campaign pushes this option in hopes of gaining votes by, what can only be described as, hoodwinking the American people into believing that such a ticket is possible. Obama has flat out said that we will not see him as a vice presidential candidate on any ticket. The offer is also illogical and inconsistent with Clinton’s assertion that Obama is not ready to be President. Because every vice president has to be ready on “day one” to assume the presidential role, how then can you argue out of one side of your mouth that Obama is not ready to be President and out of the other side endorse him as vice president? Either you believe that he is ready to be President or you do not. We the voters are not so easily fooled as to accept both arguments as valid. Luucy…you got some splaining to do. Obviously, the campaign did not think either strategy through before putting it out there. To top it off, Clinton essentially said that John McCain is ready to be President, she is ready to be President, but Barack Obama is not. Clinton actually argues that the republican candidate is a better option than the leading candidate in her own party. In this writers opinion, Clinton has officially become the suicide candidate. As she detonates herself, she plans to detonate the entire Democratic party along with her, thereby gifting the White House to the republicans in the fall. It seems that Clinton’s loyalty is to herself first, to the Democratic party second, and to the the voters….a very distant last. Viva Clinton!!!
Obama makes a comeback after last Tuesday. Even though it is debateable as to who won Texas because Obama is leading in the second step of the primacaucus right now, Wyoming held its caucus today and Obama came out smelling like a rose. Senator Barack Obama wins Wyoming handedly with a double digit margin over his rival Senator Hillary Clinton. Obama will receive a proportional amount of the 12 delegates being allocated in Wyoming. In addition, Wyoming also has 6 superdelegates. The final tally was 61% to 38%. This is a landslide victory for the senator from Illinois. It was a record turnout in the the Equality State. Nicknamed because it was the first state to give women the right to vote in 1869. The irony is amazing. It truly has earned its moniker as the state of equality given today’s results. Another irony is that it is also the state that pushed John F. Kennedy over the top to win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in 1960. The turnout in Wyoming was so overwhelming that party officials had some issues accomodating everyone wanting to participate. However, they were able to accomodate everyone. There were 23 county caucuses across the state and a total of 59000 democrats registered in Wyoming. Before the Wyoming caucus, Obama lead in delegate counts 1571 to Clinton’s 1462. A total of 2025 delegates is needed to win the nomination.
