• Montana: Bush won by 11 points in 2004, Obama leading McCain by 5 points
• Colorado: Bush +4, Obama +5
• Virginia: Bush +8, Obama +2
• New Mexico: Bush +1, Obama +3
• Florida: Bush +5, Obama +2
• Indiana: Bush +20, Obama +1
• Georgia: Bush +16, McCain +1
• Mississippi: Bush +20, McCain +4
• Alaska: Bush +26, McCain +4
• North Carolina: Bush +13, McCain +4

What is really interesting is that McCain is only leading by one percentage point in Georgia when Bush won the state by 16 points.  Also, McCain is leading by a mere four points in Mississippi, Alaska, and North Carolina, all states that Bush won by landslides in 2004.  I guess we all understand more why McCain has put Bush’s point person in charge of the day to day operations of his campaign.

COLUMBIA, SC (AP) - House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is endorsing Barack Obama for president.The South Carolina congressman told The Associated Press on Monday that he has started to phone the state’s superdelegates to ask them to get behind one candidate. When asked whether that candidate was Obama, Clyburn said yes.

Clyburn says he’ll make a formal endorsement announcement Tuesday.

The backing of the highest-ranking black member of Congress comes more than four months after Obama won the Democratic primary in South Carolina.

Obama needs just 44 delegates to get the 2,118 that are needed to secure the presidential nomination. Hillary Rodham Clinton would need about 200.

“I will cast my vote as a delegate in Denver for Senator Barack Obama. The decision was not easy. Senator Clinton has run an impressive campaign, and has spoken eloquently to the concerns to working and middle class American families. She is one of the great leaders of this generation.”  Senator Obama understands that he has the chance not just to win the election this year, but to be a great president. Americans know that Republican policies have failed because their ideas are wrong. Americans know that our government has not acted to use Franklin Roosevelt’s words, as trustees for the whole people, but have taken the side of powerful economic interests on every issue. Americans want a fundamental change in course.  Senator Obama seized that opportunity. If Senator Obama and Democratic candidates up and down the ticket win this year and then deliver next year, we can build a consensus that will last a generation.”

Rick Larsen, the Congressman and one of the superdelegates for Washington state, gave the following reasons for his recent endorsement of Barack Obama.  

Larsen said Obama is “the best candidate to turn our best hopes for a better future into reality.”  He went on to praise Obama’s fortitude in North Carolina and Indiana by saying,  ”he can take a pounding and come back strong to deliver his message of hope and change. He is tough as nails…….This week, Senator Obama has proven that he is tough and resilient. He has shown that he can take a pounding, come back and continue to communicate with the public to deliver his message of hope and change.   In my district, Senator Obama has strong grassroots support.  He has inspired and energized my constituents like no other candidate.  I believe that Senator Obama will be the best President for our country. I have been particularly impressed by Senator Obama’s truth-telling on a proposed gas tax policy – a proposal which would make little or no difference for Americans paying too much at the pump.  Our country faces great challenges.  As President, I believe that Barack Obama can unite our country to overcome obstacles and deliver real change.”

Congressman and superdelegate, Brian Baird also of Washington state, endorsed Barack Obama today. Baird gave the following statement regarding his endorsement.

“Our nation faces extraordinary challenges domestically and abroad,” Baird said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. “I believe Sen. Obama will bring a vision of unity that will rekindle the very best of our society and help all Americans move past the partisanship of the past and into the progressive partnership of the future.  It has been many years since Americans, particularly young Americans, felt the sense of enthusiasm, hope and involvement that Senator Obama has inspired. We need to nurture that enthusiasm for the good of all Americans, and I look forward to working closely in Congress with President Obama.”

I guess Sen. Obama’s trip to the House floor during session today really paid off.  That puts the total delegates, including superdelegates,  for Obama at 1851.5, and for Clinton at 1695.  Obama needs 173 to hit the 2025 that clinches the nomination.  Clinton needs 329.5 to reach the 2025 number. 

Trickle, trickle, drip, drip. 

(more…)

That’s the choice that you have North Carolina.  You know during the course of this campaign, I was very proud to say we were running a positive campaign.  We didn’t want to get caught up in the bickering, the back and forth, and the tit for tat.  But you know, I wanna just say this publicly, that there were times where we slipped into the old habits; there’re times we have been less than perfect.  I’m reminded every day of my life, by events or by my wife, that I’m not a perfect man.  And I had to tell my staff just a couple weeks ago that let’s remember what this campaign started with–the spirit with which we began.  Because, ultimately this election is not about Barack Obama; it’s not about Hillary Clinton; it’s not about John McCain.  It’s about you; it’s about the American people; it’s about your hopes, and your struggles and your dreams.  I noticed that, over the last couple of weeks, there’s been an attempt to make it about me.  He doesn’t wear a flag pin.  He’s gotta funny name.  That ex-pastor of his, that’s a problem.  I understand this.  

And so, I just wanna close by saying a little bit of something about my values, my character, why I’m here.  You know I was born to a teenage mother.  My father left when I was two.  So I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents, grandparents who were born in a small town in Kansas, during the Great Depression.  They didn’t have a lot.  And when Pearl Harbor was bombed, my grandfather joined the army and left my grandmother with a new baby and she worked on an bomber assembly line while he fought in Europe in Patton’s army.  And when he came back, part of that arsenal of democracy–there was a government there who understood that if we invest in these young GI’s coming home, we might build the middle class.  So he got a GI bill that allowed him go to college.  And there was a government that understood that if we loan families enough money to buy their own home, that will boost the economy, and it won’t just be good for the economy, it will be good for families.  And so they bought their first home with the help of  an FHA loan.  And as that little baby, my mother, got bigger, and she was ready for college, there was financial aid there to make sure that even though they didn’t have a lot of money, she could get a good education.  And when I got a little bit older, even though my mother didn’t have a lot of money herself, she was able to provide me with the best education possible.  And when after school I met my wife, it turned out she had the same story–a father who worked as a shift worker for the city and never went to college.  A mother who worked as a secretary for the city and never went to college.  And yet somehow they were able to support two children and buy a home and send their kids to college and retire with some dignity and respect.  

And so I understand that I am here before you today, just as my wife would be, as the beneficiary of everything that is good about this country.  My story is not possible except in the United States of America.  I could not be here were it not for the fact that somebody, somewhere stood up for me.  And because one person stood up, a few more stood up, and then a thousand stood up, and then a million stood up.  That’s why Hillary Clinton can run for president.  That’s why I can run for president.  Because somebody stood up, and the question now is, will the Democratic party stand up for the next generation?  That’s my patriotism.  That’s why I’m running for President. Those are my values; those are your values, North Carolina.  That’s what we’re fighting for in this election, and if you’ll stand with me, if you’ll vote for me, I promise you, we will not just win this nomination, we will win this general election.  And you and I together will change this country and change this world.  God bless you.  God bless America.

The Washington Post printed this story in 1993

“War Room” is shot in the nonscripted, cinema-verite style by D. A. Pennebaker (whose follow-around films on President Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey and Bob Dylan are documentary classics) and Chris Hegedus. Whether Carville and company are play-acting somewhat for the cameras becomes less important as the film progresses. One can only keep up an act for so long — especially in the throes of a campaign. Carville’s tearful farewell speech to his staff as they close up just before the election, Stephanopoulos’s frank talk with a potential blackmailer and a Mickey Kantor comment about the people of Indiana (when it looks as though Clinton’s ahead in Dan Quayle’s state) attest to this. Read the remainder of the story.

Okay…never mind the insult to African-Americans that they mindlessly and automatically check the democrat box without any thought about the candidate.   But, if you think that there will be no backlash against the Democratic party if they deny the first credible African-American candidate the nomination after such candidate has played by the rules and won by the rules,….you are in a fantasy world.  The backlash will not just be from African-American voters but from voters of every race who believe in a fair contest. This is a primary without a precedent.  So for those who are using history to conclude inevitability as the AA vote, think about how your predictions have played out in this race so far.  Remember, Hillary Clinton was once the inevitable nominee.  This is by every measure, an historic election that has deviated from the norm so much that the the abnormal is considered the norm when it comes to this race. 

As for African-Americans specifically, they may not be shouting in the streets….oh wait… I forgot about Al Sharpton…..okay, most African-Americans will not be shouting in the streets, but I am willing to bet money that they will not be in any hurry to get to the ballot box in November.  Especially not for someone who is widely perceived within the African-American community to have used race baiting and dirty tricks to steal the nomination from the first contending African-American candidate. 

A significant segment of the African-American community have really been turned off by the Clintons….period.  Because of the tactics employed by the Clinton campaign in this nomination contest, the Clinton name no longer carries the cache that it once did within the AA community.  South Carolina Representative Jim Clyburn came out and said as much last Friday.  The statesman from South Carolina said that African-American leaders and many within the African-American community  perceive the Clintons as trying to destroy Barack Obama.  Though African-Americans will probably not come outright and cast a vote for Sen. McCain, they will certainly not be in any hurry to cast a vote for someone who they perceive to have stolen the nomination from their candidate. 

Most pundits use the exit polls to conclude that Clinton supporters are less likely to vote for Obama than Obama supporters for Clinton.  I’ll say this once…Obama supporters are happy to “say” that they will support Clinton because it is clear that Obama will be the nominee.  My prediction is that if there is a threat of Clinton getting the nomination after Obama has won by most metrics, the tide will shift significantly.  Obama supporters will not be so willing to support a party, let alone a nominee, that would let that happen.  Newsflash to Pundit Class:  politics as usual do not apply here. 

How does Hillary Clinton get elected without the African-American vote?  Given the fact that McCain will probably get many of those independents.  And, the very real and strong possibility that all those newly registered voters, who have been  motivated solely because of Obama’s candidacy, will probably stay home?  Perhaps a month or two ago, the party could have rallied such voters, even with a perceived unjust result.  Perhaps this could have happened by both candidates dawning the stage together in Denver and singing kum-ba-ya.  However, now voters are firmly entrenched in their preferences.  If Hillary truly believes that African-Americans are just going to fall in line with the democratic party just to get her elected…especially after denying an African-American this historic opportunity, she is truly living in a parallel universe.  Especially because she did so by marginalizing Obama among low-income white voters into the scary black man.  Good luck trying to explain that away.  Just stating the facts folks.  The Clintons have made this personal.  They have done so by quickly attempting to deminish Obama wins in states with significant African-American populations (South Carolina, Mississippi etc… ).   At “The State of the Black Union” Sen. Clinton offered as an apology for her husband’s words “you know his heart.” Actually, after witnessing the way he has conducted himself during this primary and his easy willingness to throw African-Americans under the bus when his viability is threatened, I do not think that any American knows either of the Clintons, let alone their hearts.   

Finally, Clinton continues to push the claim that the GOP will use the Rev. Wright issue in the general therefore making Obama unelectable.  However, does Clinton really believe that the GOP will not push the fact that Clinton stole the election from the one viable African-American candidate thereby incensing members of the African-American community even further.  Clinton probably thinks that most democrats will search out information on her policies and the policies of McCain  and come to the logical conclusion that she, as the democratic nominee, is the obvious choice.  This writer predicts that most voters will not be INSPIRED to do that however.  Voters are more likely to make their choice based on what they see in the 30 second spots put out during the general by both campaigns.  When the GOP starts running the “she unfairly stole the nomination from your candidate,” ads, I guarantee that they will have an effect.  Who is more unelectable Sen. Clinton? 

Given the current state of this nomination race, it is virtually impossible for the superdelegates to give this nomination to Hillary Clinton without it not looking unjust, unfair, disillusioning, and disheartening to new voters and the African-American community.