Oregon and Kentucky Votes!

Today are two of the last pivotal races in this protracted democratic primary.  There are approximately 103 delegates up for grabs in Oregon and Kentucky. Both states are closed primaries with 52 delegates at stake in Oregon and 51 delegates at stake in Kentucky.  Oregon is a mail-in primary where the votes begin the counting today and should have a pretty good indication as to who won the state by around 8pm at which time half the ballots will have been counted.  In Kentucky the polls close at 7pm EST and Oregonians can drop ballots off at designated locations until 11pm EST tonight.  Though the increase in voter registration has not been nearly as significant as in earlier states, the excitement about Oregon and Kentucky has not been muffled.  This is demonstrated by the 75,000 strong crowd that showed up to hear Barack Obama speak in Oregon last weekend.  Though Obama will not officially declare his victory, he will unofficially receive his coronation as the democratic nominee.  Clinton is expected to win an easy victory in Kentucky, but not in any way close to the victory margin that she received in West Virginia.  Yesterday on the campaign trail, Clinton offered as a boost to her legitimacy as the more electable candidate, that Karl Rove endorsed her as the more electable candidate.  Yes she really gave Karl Rove as her personal endorser!  Times are rough as the primary season ends when you as a democrat sight Karl Rove as support for your candidacy. And you accept such support knowing that it is only given because Karl Rove believes that you are in fact the weaker candidate and therefore would be a better opponent against John McCain.  Back to today’s races, Obama is expected to win Oregon and get the remaining 16 pledged delegates needed to obtain a guaranteed pledge delegate majority.  A candidate needs a total of 1627 to win a absolute majority of the pledged delegates.  As of today Obama has 1612 pledge delegates.  After tonight’s primary results he should easily capture the remaining 16 delegates needed to clinch the pledge delegate majority.  Another interesting fact is that if Obama gets 52 delegates total out of both states tonight, he will obtain the majority pledge delegates even if you count Florida and Michigan as is.  This will end Clinton’s argument that of if you count Michigan and Florida she wins.  However, this writer is sure that the Clinton campaign will come up with yet a new metric of Clinton spin.  The current delegate count, including pledge and superdelegates, is Obama 1913 to Clinton’s 1719. 

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