What does Pennsylvania mean???
Not a game changer but doesn’t put Clinton away. Clinton cannot come close to winning the delegate count without winning all of the remaining contests by more than an 80% margin. Her only remaining argument……the superdelegates. Clinton will attempt to convince the superdelegates that for whatever reason Obama cannot close the deal and she will be a stronger general election candidate. The only problem with her argument is that Obama has secured a very important voting block……the majority of the American voting public. If Clinton is perceived to have stolen the nomination from Obama by way of a decision of the superdelegates, she will officially become unelectable after such decision is made. The democratic party will have disenfranchised not only the african-american community, but the hoards of new voters who have been inspired by Obama’s message and candidacy. No democrat since Franklin Roosevelt has won the presidency without the support of the african-american community. Because Obama is winning in the delegate count, the popular vote count, states won count, the fundraising count, and the new voter count, it is hard to deny his superior electability. These are all areas that speak to the progression of the democratic party. Not to mention that Obama has run a magnificent campaign in comparison to Clinton. It is amazing that the Senator from Illinois has been able to put together such a remarkable campaign considering how fresh he is to national politics. He has put together an innovative fundraising machine by concentrating on small donors as opposed to large VIP donors who usually contribute the bulk of funds in democratic contests. He has an enormous history setting volunteer network. He realized early how to organize caucus states to his benefit knowing that running against Clinton will be like running against “the first family” of the democratic party. The ability to organize and rally such a diverse coalition is an attribute that is essential to any CEO of any company. Such qualities speak volumes about a candidates leadership ability. Obama decreased Clinton’s 25 point lead to 9 points in Pennsylvania even though the state is tailor made Clinton country. Demographically speaking, Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the country, blue collar, and catholic. All voting blocks that have gone for Hillary throughout this primary season. Also, women made up 47% of the vote in Pennsylvania. However, these are older white women as opposed to younger white women where Obama usually does well in. Older white women is Clinton’s most loyal voting block. The shock is that the New York Senator did not win by at least 15 to 20 points. Also with respect to fundraising, people tend to put their money where their mouth is…..if voters are not putting their money where their mouth is, then they are not really talking. The Clinton campaign is running on gasoline fumes right now. In contrast, democrats, republicans, and independents are contributing to Obama in droves, to the tune of 40 million as a matter of fact. Why can’t Obama close the deal….the question should be why can’t Clinton close the deal? Voters and supporters are not contributing the Clinton campaign with the same vigor. The Clinton campaign is officially broke and operating in the red. They were able to raise 2.5 million last night but they are still operating in the red even with that minor funding boost. Even with a fundraising spike after the Pennsylvania win, sustainability is the problem facing the Clinton campaign. Democrats are just not donating to Clinton’s campaign in the numbers that they are to the Obama campaign. Clinton also started out this contest as the presumptive nominee, Obama came out of nowhere and threw a monkey wrench into her plans. Why has Clinton not sewn up this nomination, and worse yet, why is she behind by all metrics used to determine victory? That is a question that needs to be explored in more depth. As mentioned above, Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania is not the significant win that it needed to be to make voters pause about Obama’s candidacy. Clinton won in Pennsylvania by the same margin or less that she did Ohio. Obama improved his numbers with older voters and women in Pennsylvania since Ohio. Women voted for Clinton 59% to Obama’s 41%. Clinton did maintain her stronghold with women, older voters, and catholics. However, Obama also kept his stronghold on new, young, and educated voters, as well as african-americans. Also, as a final point, 13% of voters in the exit poll said that race mattered in their vote. Of that 13%, 3 out of 4 voted for Clinton over Obama. There are a lot of white working class voters that may have a problem voting for a black candidate. This was probably demonstrated in Ohio and Pennsylvania. There are also a lot of older voters who are loyal to the Clintons because of their 20 year presence on the national political stage. In which case, Obama may need to find a way to reach these two demographics. Is it possible to do so within the remaining months in the election cycle? Probably. If he can convince these voting blocks that he can represent them and talk to them on a level that makes them feel that he will be fighting for their interests regardless of what their beliefs are, then he has a great chance of getting their votes.