The latest Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby poll released today show a tightening race in Ohio. Clinton is slightly leading, but is within the margin of error, with 44% to Obama’s 42%. Update: new polls released on March 1st, show that Obama has essentially closed the gap on Clinton’s lead in Ohio. Cleveland Plain Dealer, Zogby, Rasmussen, Survey USA, and Real Clear Politics polls, all show the two candidates tied or within the margin of error. Less than two weeks ago, Clinton was leading in Ohio by double digits. The latest Reuters/CSPAN/Houston Chronicle poll for Texas shows Obama leading with 48% to Clinton’s 42% where again, two weeks ago, Clinton was leading by double digits. The rolling poll questions were asked to likely democratic primary voters. The breakdown of the candidates voting blocks are somewhat similar to voter breakdowns of previous contests. Obama leads in Ohio among cross-over republicans, independents, young voters, higher income voters, and blacks. Clinton leads among women, older voters, Catholics, union households and voters living outside of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati. Of voters who decided in the last month, Obama is significantly ahead of Clinton. Whereas Clinton is ahead with voters who made their decision over a month ago. It seems that Obama’s momentum continues despite what appears to be a pile-on from all directions. Clinton, McCain, and now even George Bush has joined in by telling Obama that he should be concentrating on winning the Democratic nomination instead of what is going on in the current White House. Can someone tell George Bush that he should be worrying about what is going on with gas prices in the United States rather than who said what in the Democratic primary. A reporter asked Bush yesterday, during a White House press conference, about analysts recent predictions of a potential increase of gas prices to $4 a gallon. Bush responded by saying that “he had not heard that.” Uhhh…..but you do know the latest tit-for-tat between the primary candidates. President Bush, please concentrate on your job, which is, in case you failed to read the job description, addressing several pressing issues facing our country, e.g., skyrocketing gasoline prices, the economy, foreign affairs, the Iraq war, etc…. We do not care about your punditry with respect to our next president. In case you haven’t noticed Mr. President, your approval rating is at 30%. It may be because you are watching too much television and not tending to the job that you were sent to Washington, DC to do. Anyway, back to the current candidates. Most say that Clinton has to win both Texas and Ohio, including her husband, to remain relevant in this race. Two weeks ago, most were saying that she not only has to win but has to win by large margins. Now they’re saying that even if she wins by a small margin as long as she wins. And the absolute latest from the pundits and the from some in the Clinton campaign is that she only has to win either Texas or Ohio to remain in the race. Whoops…I spoke too soon, the absolute absolute latest is that Obama must win all four contests on Jr. Tuesday for Clinton to be no longer viable. Unbelievable!! The goal post keeps moving for Clinton, and she accuses Obama of receiving special treatment from the press. It really is time to choose a nominee, regardless of how much enjoyment the media is getting out of this long protracted primary season. The longer this stretches out, the less time voters have to really weigh the positions of the general election candidates and make an informed decision about our next leader.
The Texas contest is somewhat complicated in that it is a mixture of a primary and caucus. Voters in essence get to vote twice. First voters vote during the day at the primary, which is an open primary where republicans and independents can vote. Then right after the doors shut at 7pm on March 4th, the caucus begins and lasts until Texas’ democratic caucus on June 6th. Voters can come back after 7pm in the evening on the same day and vote again during the caucus. There are 193 Texas delegates at stake on March 4th. Of the 193, 126 of the delegates will be handed out from the primary portion. And the 67 remainder delegates will handed out at the state convention in June. Delegates are allocated based on how voters turned out in past elections. The greater the turnout in the district the more delegates the district receives in the next election. As for delegates relating to heavily african-american and hispanic districts in Texas, this year’s allocation favors the heavily african-american districts because such districts turned out in greater numbers in the last election than the heavily hispanic districts. Therefore, african-american districts in Texas will receive more delegates than many of latino districts in Texas. Early voting in Texas began on February 19th. Primaries are also being held in Ohio, Vermont, and Rhode Island. Both the democrats and republicans hosts primaries in all four states on March 4th, except Texas also hosts a caucus. The two most delegate rich states are Texas and Ohio. For the democrats, 370 delegates at stake on Tuesday. Texas distributes (126)193, Ohio distributes 141, Vermont distributes 15, and Rhode Island distributes 21 delegates. Currently Obama is leading with 1192 delegates to Clinton’s 1036. For the republicans, 256 delegates are at stake on Tuesday. Ohio distributes 85, Rhode Island distributes 17, Texas distributes 137, and Vermont distributes 17. Currently McCain has 930 delegates and only needs 261 more to clinch the nomination.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton had their final debate, before the Jr Tuesday March 4th primaries, in Ohio. Both candidates held their own. There were a couple of tense moments where both candidates accused each other of negative campaign tactics and clashed over Healthcare, NAFTA, Iraq, and foreign policy. Clinton mentioned the Saturday Night Live clip and attempted to rehash the joke by asking whether the moderators wanted to offer Obama a pillow. I don’t think that she got the response from the audience that she hoped for. Clinton also mentioned that she is always being called on first for questions but doesn’t mind, however, did want the moderators to be aware of it. Some predict that the statement was an attempt to garner sympathy from voters regarding her alleged unfair treatment by the press. I also think that Clinton was trying to find an opening to use the Saturday Night Live skit, and when one didn’t present itself soon enough, she created an opening. Unfortunately for her, again, the attempted joke fell flat. Maureen Dowd writes an article in the New York Times regarding the alleged Obama favorable press charge by the Clinton campaign. The gist of the article is that the charge is silly because of the special treatment that the Clinton campaign has received. As an example, the article offers as proof of the openmindness of the press, the fact that no other candidate could lose 11 contests in a row by such large margins and still be embraced and touted by the press as a major contender. We have all heard it, “don’t count a Clinton out,” “Hillary could come back.” Does anyone actually believe that if the situation were reversed and Obama had lost 11 contests in a row by such wide margins that the press would still be touting him as a contender? Visions of Mike Huckabee comes to mind. Democratic party leaders would be asking him to fade out so that the party can began moving toward the general election. Clinton also finally said that she regrets her vote on the Iraq war. Unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, the debate was not a game changer. The Clinton campaign went in hoping for a major blunder by Obama, or at least a big moment, that will somehow turn the tide in its direction. That moment didn’t come. Both candidates performed well and the debate seemed to this writer to be a draw. However, current MSNBC post-debate polls show that 70% of the people watching the debate thought that Obama won, while 30% thought Clinton won out of the 97,000 people who have voted. Latest national polls released before the debate also revealed that Obama is now leading Clinton by double digits. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama closing in on Clinton’s lead in Ohio with Clinton at 48% and Obama at 43%. According to the latest CNN poll, Obama is leading in Texas with 50% to Clinton’s 46%.
Howard Dean, the Chair of the Democratic National Committee, is very upset with John McCain. Apparently, when the McCain campaign was not doing very well back in December, McCain was strapped for cash and applied for federal matching funds using the promise of Public Financing as collateral for the loan. Public financing is funded by taxpayers checking the box on their tax returns indicating that they would like to donate to the Federal Election Commission. Candidates opting into the public finance system are also subject to public finance regulations. Public finance regulations set spending limits for candidates in primaries and the general election. In primaries, the cap is set at $54 million. McCain has already spent $49 million on his campaign. Therefore, if he were to abide by the election laws, that McCain is responsible for reforming, the Arizona Senator will only have $5 million left to spend in this primary season ending in September. Because McCain does not want to be limited by the spending cap, he has formally requested a withdrawal from the program. McCain’s lawyer argues that McCain is allowed to opt out of the program because it is voluntary. FEC lawyers announced on Thursday that it may not be possible for McCain to withdraw at this point because he used the promise of federal matching funds to secure the bank loan. Okay, didn’t McCain attempt to slam Obama for not responding, and according to McCain breaking his word, regarding a pledge Obama signed last year regarding public campaign financing. Even though the actual wording of the pledge is to “aggressively pursue an agreement” with the GOP to preserve a publicly financed election. Last I checked, an agreement to “agressively pursue” agreement, does not mean actual agreement. Participating in the public finance system caps each candidates spend in the general election to $85 million and neither candidate cannot accept additional funds. But I digress. Looks like Mr. McCain should be in fact, Mr. Pot calling Mr. Kettle. Currently four of the six member seats of the Federal Election Commission are vacant so no decision can be made on this issue until the FEC has quorum. Gridlock between the Bush administration and the Senate is stalling the nominations for these posts. The reason this is such an issue is because McCain has built his reputation, after the Keating Five scandal (five Senators, including McCain, accused of Savings and Loan corruption in 1989), on being a reformer and the champion of campaign finance reform.
Hillary Clinton has developed a different posture since her closing comments at the CNN debate last Thursday. Most believed that Clinton’s final comments on Thursday were those of a conciliatory candidate. This writer did not necessarily agree with such sentiment due to Clinton’s final statementswipe at Obama at the end of the debate. What began as a congenial closing comment by Clinton, ended with her in essence saying that she hopes that the American people will survive if voters do not choose her as the nominee. But that’s a side point. Apparently, no one told Hillary that the race is over because she has ratcheted it up a few hundred notches since Thursday. What ticked her off? Allegedly, it was campaign mailers that the Obama campaign has been circulating, regarding Clinton’s position on NAFTA, for almost a month. At a press conference this past weekend, Clinton accused Obama of Karl Rove (GOP operative accused by democrats of dirty tricks campaigning) tactics as well as attempted to scold Obama by saying ”shame on you Barack Obama.” Senator Clinton also mocked Obama’s unity message this weekend in an effort to discredit the Illinois Senator with Texas and Ohio voters. Many opined that Clinton sounds more schoolmarmish than presidential. Besides the obvious point that this new tone will certainly not attract the white men that have migrated away from her candidacy in droves. This different version of negative campaigning is also not positioning her as the candidate able to bring both parties together to move Washington beyond the party gridlock of the last eight years. Instead, it seems to reinforce the polarities of her candidacy. Is sarcasm the best weapon available in the Clinton arsenal? If so, perhaps it is time to make a graceful exit. Further, what is that saying about the supporters who have embraced Obama’s message, should they be mocked as well? In which candidate playbook does it say that you gain votes by insulting voters? Nothing like the demonization of hope and unity that sends me running towards a candidate. One last question, is Hillary Clinton the only person in the United States that is aware of the realities of Washington? And, if Hillary is the only person, now would be a good time to apply some of that awareness to the strategies and management of the Clinton campaign. In addition to the new tone, the Clinton campaign is being charged with attempting to smear Obama by circulating pictures of the Illinois Senator donning traditional Somali garb while visiting Africa. This is something that most dignitaries do, including Hillary, while visiting other countries to show respect for the culture. When asked why the Clinton campaign released the photos, the campaign did not deny circulating the photos but flipped the script and gave the nonresponsive “we will not be distracted” answer. Many think that this calls into question the judgment of the Clinton campaign as to why they think this would be an effective campaign strategy. I am at a lost as to why the Clinton campaign would push to circulate such photos. Is this show and tell day and the Clinton’s are sharing how Obama spent his summer vacation? Or, is there a more sinister karlrovian tactic at play here? Clinton tells Obama “shame on you,” yet resorts to what most have described as the divisive, fear mongering, campaign tactics of the past. So as a final go-for-broke strategy, Hillary Clinton has decided to go karlrovian, aggressively negative, with a big dose of sarcasm, and whatever else that sticks. At this point, the schizophrenic nature of the Clinton campaign strategies are giving me whiplash. However, the latest has sold me. The New York Senator’s final posture taken this past weekend went something like this; enough of the speeches….enough of the big rallies…enough of the popularity of his message…..enough with the optimism……just knock it off, “get real,” and vote for me unless you want a couple of knuckle swats with my ruler. Hmmm………the corporal punishment strategy…..works for me! Yes maam! Sign me up IMMEDIATELY! Debate tonight on MSNBC @ 9pm ET
John McCain makes an interesting admission yesterday. The Arizona Senator said yesterday that his winning the presidency is linked to his support of the Iraq war. McCain said that if he cannot convince the American people that the surge is working then he will not win the White House in November. McCain picked up two more wins yesterday, Puerto Rico and American Somoa. This gives McCain 971 delegates total. The Senator is closing in on the 1191 needed to clinch the nomination.
Ralph Nader has again decided to attempt to be the spoiler for the 2008 election. Even though in the 2004 election he only won .03 percent of the vote. This is Nader’s third run for the presidency as an alleged consumer advocate. Nader has criticized the candidates from both political parties for disagreeing with him even though voters have shown that his interests are not necessarily in line with those of the average American or even in some respects his supporters. Nader believes that unless you buy in on his agenda hook, line, and sinker….you are somehow lacking. He claims to be against everything that McCain stands for, yet through his bloated sense of self-importance, he has actually become his ally. If history is anything to go by, Nader is hoping for another 2000 election. The “consumer advocate” candidate has refused to take any responsibility for the 2000 election but continues to blame the results on Katherine Harris, the Supreme Court, and Jeb Bush. The final tally of the 2000 Florida showed that Nader received over 97 thousand votes, Gore lost Florida by a little over 500 votes. Therefore, had Nader not been on the ballot, Gore would probably be finishing off his last year as President. Not to mention the different position that the country would be in had Al Gore become President instead of George Bush due to a very contrasting style of governing. Last year, Nader said that he will only run if he received $10 million in campaign funds. When asked whether he had raised the $10 million, his campaign declined to comment. So even though he does not appear to have the public support, as evidenced by his inability to reach his fundraising goal, he has decided to indulge his narcissistic tendencies by making a third run for the presidency. Nader’s self indulgence is his chief priority regardless of the fact that only his “supporters” bear the risks and costs of his actions. It is clear that the only people that will benefit from Nader’s run for president are those supporting John McCain. Therefore, if Nader is your candidate and you do not mind having at least another four years of the republicans in the Executive Office, then by all means roll the dice and vote for Nader. Just stay informed.
The democrats overseas have spoken and Barack Obama wins their votes. Their are a total of 11 delegates to be apportioned. The final tally from the Democrats Abroad Global primary is 65% Obama and Clinton 32%. The global primary began Feb 5th and continued through Feb 12th. Voting stations were set up in 33 countries. Democrats in countries that did not have voting centers were able to vote via mail, Internet, and fax. The largest number of expatriates live in the United Kingdom, Canada, and Mexico.
This guy makes you want to go read the encyclopedia or something. AND, he’s speaking from HOLLYWOOD!!!! This is a transformative election and WE Are Engaged. Progress
Barack Obama won handily in Hawaii by 76% of the vote. Obama’s winning streak increases by 2, to equal 10 wins in a row. It looks as if the Windy City Senator has won the momentum fight going into the March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio. Wisconsin was a sort of test site for the Clinton campaign as to whether its decision to use negative campaigning would boost their numbers and slim Obama’s margin of victory. Clinton campaign officials have said that they will continue to go negative because the strategy did work in Wisconsin, even though Obama won by 17 percentage points. The campaign opines that the Wisconsin victory margin is less than that of the Potomac Primaries so the strategy was a success. Wisconsin exit polls revealed that 58% of voters felt that the Clinton campaign unfairly criticized Obama. Only 33% thought that the Obama campaign unfairly criticized Clinton. Wisconsin is known for its distaste of negative campaigning. Further revelations from the exit polls showed that 51% of the voters thought that Obama would be the best Commander-in-Chief. Also, when Wisconsin voters were asked who cares about them, 54% believes that Obama cares more about them as people. For Clinton to be competitive for the nomination at this point, she will have to win over 70% of the popular vote in the remaining battleground states. In which, she would receive 65 percent of the delegates in those states. This would be a shock heard around the world if Clinton were able to pull off such a feat given the dynamics of the race thus far. If Obama wins 65 percent of the remaining delegates, he can win the nomination with just elected delegates. The Senator would not need the superdelegates, he could clinch the nomination just from the primary and caucus vote. Obama now leads Clinton in elected delegates by about 150, has won more states, and leads in the popular vote.
After a fierce battle between Obama and Clinton in the Copper State, Obama shines. The Senator from Illinois wins Wisconsin by a significant margin of 58% to 41%. The Clinton campaign was hoping to reduce the victory margin to a single digit win but Obama won by 17 points. Wisconsin has 74 elected delegates and 18 superdelegates available, totaling 92 delegates up for grabs in the state. Wisconsin was true blue but has shown a tendency to swing or be purple due to the influx of progressives in the state. The Badger State is also a critical win for Democrats in November. Having said all of that, the state is also tailor made for Hillary Clinton. White working class voters make up the majority of the electorate. The significance of this Obama victory is not missed because the Senator has again broadened his coalition. The white women vote was split almost evenly between Clinton and Obama with Clinton winning the group 53% to Obama’s 45%. Obama won white men 62% to Clinton’s 36% and made inroads with working class voters increasing his percentage to 48% to Clinton’s 51%. Clinton did win with three other groups: seniors, voters with less than a college education, and catholic voters. The Illinois Senator won 63% of all voters who decided in the last month. As to the issues, Obama won on healthcare, the war in Iraq, the economy, and electability. According to exit polls, seven in ten voters believe that international trade takes jobs from the United States. The North American Free Trade Agreement may have hurt Hillary in this regard because many states like Wisconsin and Ohio have been deindustrialized because of the Agreement. It is significant that Bill Clinton was the primary force behind the passage of NAFTA. Another contributing factor to the outcome of the Wisconsin contest is same day voter registration, citizens can register to vote and actually vote on election day. In addition, Wisconsin is an open primary where independents and republicans vote in the democratic primary, two groups that tend to go for Obama. The exit polls also revealed the following facts about Wisconsin voters: 43% thought the economy is the most important issue; 29% are concerned about the war in Iraq; 25% are concerned with healthcare; 90% of the voters thought the economy is not doing well; 17% of voters were first time primary voters; 27% were independent voters; 59% of the voters had income levels over $50,000. McCain also won in Wisconsin and Washington state. McCain will receive the 40 delegates from Wisconsin and 19 delegates from Washington state.
By any means necessary is how Hillary Clinton plans to win the democratic nomination. So let me get this right…even though the voters have gone out to the polls and made their choices as to who they want as President, Hillary Clinton plans to override their will through backroom dealing at the Democratic Convention. It appears as if Clinton believes that she is entitled to the presidency regardless of what the American voters have to say about it. What is going on? First, she tries to seat the phantom delegates of Michigan and Florida in an attempt to override the will of the voters. Now she attempts another, deemed by some as “subversive,” tactic to secure the nomination. Does Clinton actually have a campaign strategy to thwart the will of the american people and disenfranchise millions of voters? Below is an article from Politico where the Clinton campaign confirms its strategy.
Clinton targets pledged delegates POLITICO
By: Roger Simon
Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign intends to go after delegates whom Barack Obama has already won in the caucuses and primaries if she needs them to win the nomination. This strategy was confirmed to me by a high-ranking Clinton official on Monday. And I am not talking about superdelegates, those 795 party big shots who are not pledged to anybody. I am talking about getting pledged delegates to switch sides. What? Isn’t that impossible? A pledged delegate is pledged to a particular candidate and cannot switch, right? Wrong. Read the rest of this entry »
Both the democrats and republicans will be battling it out in the Wisconsin primary today. Other states holding contests today include Hawaii with its Democratic caucus and Washington State with its GOP primary. For the democrats there are 92 delegates up for grabs in Wisconsin and 20 delegates at stake in Hawaii. For the republicans, Wisconsin has 40 delegates available and 19 delegates at stake in Washington state. The real focus will be on Wisconsin today. Both Obama and Clinton are neck and neck in the Copper State. Wisconsin is a state made up of Clinton’s base, blue collar, working class, and only 6 percent african-americans. Most would say that Wisconsin is tailor made for the Clintons, yet the Clinton campaign initially decided to pass on trying to win the state. The Clinton campaign has said that it does not have to win Wisconsin to win the nomination. The question is whether Obama can pull out a win in the Badger State. This is a very tight race between the two democratic candidates. Turnout is expected to be record breaking, notwithstanding current weather conditions.
After 50 years in power, Fidel Castro steps down as leader of Cuba. The Communist leader has been ailing since November 2006. Castro, in a statement released during the night, has officially resigned and will not seek a new term. The question in Washington is who takes the reigns next? The U.S. has hoped for the demise of the communist leader for decades. Castro has outlasted nine U.S. Presidents. Many will speculate as to Cuba’s new role in the world. Will Cuba go democratic? Will their be anarchy due to the return of exiles seeking power? Castro began his rise to power on January 1, 1959, when the revolutionary forces overthrew the Batista dictatorship in Cuba. On Feb 16, 1959, Castro officially became Prime Minister of Cuba and has been ruling the island every since. On April 17, 1961 the Bay Of Pigs happened when 1300 Cuban exiles armed U.S. weapons landed on the island and were killed or captured after the U.S. cancelled air support. During the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, the Soviet Union secretly installed bases in Cuba that included missiles and nuclear war heads. After finding this out, JFK ordered a quarantine of the island bringing the U.S. and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war. Eventually the Soviets agree to remove missiles in exchange for the U.S. removing it’s missiles from Turkey. The U.S. also gave it’s word that it would not move against the Castro regime. From April to September of 1980, there was a mass exodus of 125,000 Cubans who immigrated to the U.S., such exodus was labeled the Mariel Boatlift. In 1999, Elian Gonzalez is picked up off the Florida coast after his mother died at sea. Even after a very public campaign by members of Elian’s family to keep him here in the United States, Elian Gonzalez is returned to his father in Cuba. In July of 2006, Castro undergoes intestinal surgery and temporarily hands over power to his brother Raul. A spokesperson from the White House has confirmed that the United States has no intention of lifting its embargo on Cuba as result of this new development.
An enlightening article in the New York Times regarding Obama’s “present” votes in the New York Senate. The Op-Ed piece was written by Abner Mikva, an informal contributor to the Obama campaign, as well as a former Illinois state legislator, Unites States Congressman, and former White House counsel for the Clinton administration.
February 16, 2008 Op-Ed Contributor
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON should probably be forgiven for not remembering the course on the state Constitution that she would have had to take as an eighth grader in Illinois. But had she remembered it, she would have known that Senator Barack Obama was not ducking his responsibility in the Illinois Senate when he voted “present” on many issues. Unlike Congress and the legislatures of most other states, each chamber of the Illinois Legislature requires a “constitutional majority” to pass a bill. The state Senate has 59 members, so it takes 30 affirmative votes. This makes a “present” vote the same as a no. If a bill receives 29 votes, but the rest of the senators vote “present,” it fails. In Congress, in contrast, a bill can pass in either the House or the Senate as long as more people vote for it than against it. If 10 people vote in favor and nine against, and the rest either vote “present” or don’t vote at all, the bill passes. It can actually pass with just one vote, as long as no one votes no. In the Illinois Senate, there can be strategic reasons for voting “present” rather than simply no. Read the rest of this entry »
Colin Powell, former Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General, agrees with Obama’s decision to talk to nations that are not our friends. Powell surmised that it is a step towards restoring favorable relations with foreign states. Regarding speaking with Iran, the General affirmed Obama’s position by stating that he would also engage in talks with Iran. He continued to say that we have to speak to foreign nations of which we have significant disagreements in order to move forward and begin to get out of the situation that we have been in since the Iran hostage crisis of 1979. Powell went on to say that this must be done without imposing impossible preconditions on such conversations. Having someone of General Powell’s stature, with the resume and experience to match, corroborating Obama’s judgment on foreign policy, calls into question some of the criticisms that have been waged against the Senator. General Powell also shedded light on how he will vote in November. The former Secretary of State said that he is keeping his options open but did emphasize that he will vote for the candidate who will do the best job for America, whether the candidate be republican or democrat. The General further stated that he will vote for the person who has a vision that reaches out to the rest of the world and begins to restore favorable ratings to America. Concluding his interview, the former Chairman said that the candidate who is most competent and represents the vision and goodness of ALL of America will get his vote.
Hillary Clinton has just won New Mexico. The New Mexico primary took place on Super Tuesday. It took the the state nine days to count the ballots. The race was very tight and Clinton won by a very slim margin. However, a win, is a win, is a win……even if it is nine days late. They must be using the finger counting method in the Land of Enchantment. Even still, I am sure that Senator Clinton is very happy to finally get some good news. Given the proportional system utilized by the democrats, the victory margin is slim enough that it is likely that both candidates will receive an equal amount of delegates.
Mitt Romney has confirmed that he will endorse John McCain for President in 2008. This is a surprise because the two have been reported to have a real dislike for each other. Many believe that Romney’s endorsement may help McCain get right with the right. The former governor did manage to garner a notable amount of conservative support during his run. Romney has said that he will ask his delegates to support John McCain, which will bring McCain much closer to the the magic number of 1191 needed to clinch the Republican nomination. The pundits speculate that the move could put the bostontonian under consideration for the GOP VP spot. The endorsement will happen today between 3:30 and 4:00pm.
After several substantial losses in a row, the Clinton campaign is scrambling. After Virginia, the campaign is frantically trying to hold on to its coalition. In Virginia, Obama won three stronghold groups of Clinton; women, catholics, and Latinos. In light of this new development, the Clinton campaign has made some strategy changes. Campaign Clinton has now directed their focus towards two groups; women and working class whites. It also appears that the campaign has decided to go negative…again. However, this time it looks as if they will do it carefully. Clinton is already running a negative ad in Wisconsin criticizing Obama for his decision not to debate in Wisconsin. Not to mention, the very public and concerted effort by campaign Clinton to try and seat Florida and Michigan, even though only Clinton’s name appeared on the ballot in Michigan. My question is…how does that pass the fairness test? Now, lets talk about campaign financing. The Clintons raised 140 million dollars that they spent by Super Tuesday. How do you spend 140 million dollars in a month and a half? The fact that the campaign was unable to manage and properly allocate resources does not bode well for the Clinton Economic Plan. Apparently, the campaign spent the bulk of the 140 million before Super Tuesday not expecting the Obama campaign to last past that point. One thing that may have contributed to the lack of funds is Clintons’ hiring of two jets, one for her, and one for the press. It is only recently that Clinton started flying on the press plane. But according to Bill Clinton, they were operating on a “shoestring.” The Clintons far out raised Obama in 2007, yet the Obama campaign does not appear to be having such struggles. Next for Clinton, all eyes are on Texas and Ohio. The campaign has adopted the Giulianni strategy and is putting all their chips in a big Texas basket. On Tuesday, when Clinton arrived in Texas and spoke to a very large crowd, the Senator told the crowd “we are family…starting right now.” So was she a mere acquaintance prior to that? And what about March 5th, the day after the Texas primary, does the relationship revert back to acquantance status? James Carvill, one of Clinton’s biggest supporters, said very bluntly last night that if Clinton does not win Texas and Ohio, it’s over. Latest polls show Clinton ahead in Ohio and Texas. By the way, there are two additional primaries before Ohio and Texas. Wisconsin and Hawaii?? These primaries take place on February 19th.
Barack Obama and John McCain has won all three contests within the Potomac primaries. On the democratic side, Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Virginia gave Barack Obama significant victories over Hillary Clinton. More specifically, Virginia was very significant. Considered a sort of bellwether state, Obama won over voters that have previously voted for Clinton. For example, Obama won the latino vote 53% to Clintons 37%. In Virginia and Maryland, Obama won 59% of the women vote. Obama split the Virginia overall white vote with Clinton by winning 48% of the total demographic. Further, Obama also won heavily among white men in Virginia. In addition, Obama won the catholic vote. As for Obama’s across-the-isle appeal, republicans represented 8% of the vote in the Virginia democratic primary and Obama won 70% of their vote. The Senator from Illinois has managed to broaden his coalition by reaching across the isle with a unifying message.Both candidates were vying heavily for Virginia voters. Clinton considered Virginia her best chance of a win within this group of contests. However, Obama won a substantial victories over Clinton in Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia. The final tally for Virginia is 64% to 35%, Maryland, 59% to 37% and the District of Columbia, 75% to 24%. These wins will give Obama eight victories in a row thereby giving Obama a delegate lead over Clinton. Before this contest, the Associated Press reported that Clinton lead with 1136 delegates to Obama’s 1108. After the Potomac primaries, Obama takes the lead with 1210 delegates and Clinton falls slightly behind with 1188 delegates. These AP totals includes Superdelegates. Additionally, Obama has won a total of 21 states to Clinton’s 10. The Clinton campaign has said that their focus is on the March 4th primaries of Ohio and Texas. Clinton is already campaigning in the Lone Star State in hopes of building a firewall against the Obama momentum. Though, continued wins by Obama could put a kink in Clinton’s strategy. It will be difficult for the Clinton campaign to spin eight successive wins by Obama as insignificant. As damage control, Clinton made telephone calls to several of her donors and supporters asking them to hang in there with her until Ohio and Texas. However, if Obama’s momentum continues to build, Ohio and Texas may not be the result that the Clinton campaign expects. Obama has already hit the ground in Wisconsin campaigning for its primary on February 19th. As for the Republicans, McCain also won all of the Potomac primaries. It seems that McCain in winning over conservatives, at least he did so in Virginia and Maryland. The final tallys were Virginia, McCain 50% and Huckabee 41%, in Maryland McCain 59% and Huckabee 29%. and the District of Columbia, McCain 68% and 35%. Virginia is especially significant due the large amount of conservatives in that state. The fact that McCain won Virginia may be an indication that the tide may be turning and the far right of the GOP has begun to rally around the Arizona senator. Huckabee was hoping to win Virginia to legitimize his continued participation in the race. However, the former Arkansas govenor is not dropping out and vows to stay in the race uintil McCain hits the magic number of 1191 delegates. The McCain campaign has labeled the affable Arkansan an “irritant.” After McCain’s win of Virginia, most have concluded that he is the Republican nominee. There isn’t a math calculation that adds up to Huckabee becoming the GOP nominee for the 2008 Presidential niomination. As a side note: Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, resigns.
Today all the candidates battle in the beltway. For the democrats, a total of 168 delegates are at stake in Virginia, the District of Columbia, and Maryland. Virginia boasts the biggest prize of 83 delegates, then Maryland with 70, and the District of Columbia holds 15 delegates. The Democratic candidates are in a dead heat, and both Clinton and Obama have been campaigning heavily in the Beltway over the last couple of days. Last count, according to NBC, Clinton has 1136 delegates to Obama’s 1108. For the republicans, there are a total of 113 delegates at stake in the Potomac primaries. Virginia will be shelling out 60 delegates, Maryland 37, and the District of Columbia 16. McCain is still very much the GOP frontrunner with 724 delegates and Huckabee is trailing significantly with 234 delegates. Virginia is an open primary so a registered voter can vote in any party primary regardless of his or her party affiliation. Maryland is a closed primary where voters may vote in a party’s primary only if they are registered members of that party. The polls in Virginia are open 6am to 7pm, you must be in line at 7pm in order to vote. In the District of Columbia and Maryland the polls are open from 7am to 8pm. These hours may be extended if there are voting irregularities or problems, so check with your precinct for updated hours. Most importantly, please don’t forget to VOTE TODAY.
What an exciting race? I have never experienced such an adrenalin rush from a political campaign. As an outsider looking in, the democratic race is like being at the horse races at the final stretch. Even with all the exciting contests, debates, and back and forth between the two candidates, I find myself wondering…is all this for naught? Are we going to wake up one day before the convention and hear that, despite all our efforts and all the newly generated excitement, the Democratic Party establishment has decided the nominee for us? Are we going to hear that some backroom deal was brokered in the middle of the night by Washington insiders? Please say it isn’t so. Now that you have our keen interest, awakened our spirit, motivated us toward change, inspired us to be more politically involved than any electorate in history, I hope that you do not now steal our spirit by meeting behind closed doors in a smoke filled room to make a decision that will affect the American people for decades, and maybe centuries to come. If such an outcome were to occur, I believe that there would be a backlash toward the election system and the democratic party of epic proportions. The last thing that we need as voters is to feel that going out to polls and casting our vote does not really matter. Many people felt this way after the Bush-Gore election. To have this confirmed inside the Democratic party would be completely demoralizing for the “electorate.” The idea that a few people within the Democratic Party have the power to override the will of the general population seems contrary to what the Democratic Party stands for. Not to mention, pompous and arrogant. The whole Superdelegates system does not necessarily instill in voters the confidence that our will will prevail in the end. The archaic system was developed at a time when the electorate did not have the technology and improved communication available to us today. Because of such improvements, we are much more informed about the issues facing our country and our everyday lives. The Superdelegates idea is based on the erroneous premise that politicians have better judgment than their constituents as to who should be our President. But don’t we elect the politicians? Well, it’s a new day, and voters of the 2008 election are more informed about the issues affecting their political decisions than voters have been in the last thirty years. So I ask…..is such a system needed in this incredibly technologically advanced climate? I think not. I suggest that after the 2008 election the antiquated system be scrapped. As for this election, my suggestion is that you make some process decisions as to how the worst case scenario can be resolved and you make them quick. Read the rest of this entry »
The Omentum seems to continue as Barack Obama adds another victory to his sweep of victories this weekend. This will be the fifth victory in a row for the Senator from Illinois. The Maine caucus was one where the Clinton campaign thought that they would be able to pull out a win due to the positive numbers that they received in the state recently. Clinton also hoped to win Maine in an effort to blunt Obama’s momentum going into the Feb 12th primaries. Apparently, Maine voters had a different plan in mind. Both campaigns saturated the state with radio and TV advertising. The excitement about the caucus, even after the pinnacle of Super Tuesday, was not diminished. There was tremendous anticipation and exhileration among voters showing up at the polls. Not even the frigid temperatures could chill the enthusiasm of many of those who stood in long lines to make sure that their vote was cast. Each of the candidates will receive a proportional share of the 24 delegates allotted. As a side note: Hillary Clinton replaced her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. This new development took place on Sunday, right after Clinton lost four contests in a row to Obama. The Clinton campaign has stated that Maggie Williams will be taking over as campaign manager beginning next week.
Barack Obama proves again that he is a force to be reckon with. The Jr. Senator won both Nebraska and Washington 68% to Clinton’s 32%. Obama also won 57% of the Louisiana vote and 90% of the Virgin Islands vote. This has been a great night for Obama. There was a total of 161 delegates up for grabs tonight. In the states where Clinton received at least 15% of the vote, the delegates will be split proportionally between the two candidates. The candidates move on to the Maine caucuses today where 24 delegates are at stake. Next stop, the Potomac, or the beltway primaries on Feb 12th. Both candidates will be battling for precious delegates in the District of Columbia, 37 delegates, Maryland, 99 delegates, and Virginia for 101 delegates.
